Category Archives: History

Rinderpest Virus Wiped Out

The BBC brings good news about the cattle plague (Rinderpest) virus — it has officially been wiped out. The virus has been blamed for widespread famine.

The World Health Organization (WHO) so far has declared only two diseases officially eradicated.

The first was smallpox caused by variola virus (VARV), which was in fact eradicated by application of cowpox. The second was cowpox or rinderpest (caused by the rinderpest virus — RPV). Smallpox had caused epidemics throughout human history with estimated death tolls in the 300-500 million range (as high as 10% of all deaths in the 20th century).

Although rinderpest was used to cure smallpox, on its own it continued causing mass death of cattle herds throughout Europe and Africa for centuries.

More than a third of the population of Ethiopia died in the 19th century, for example, after Italians introduced infected cattle from India.

Vaccination was hindered due to conflict, lack of authority and perhaps even a lack of will from Europeans to solve for destabilization of Africa (preferring wealth accumulation to be controlled from Europe).

The BBC article points out the method used to test and eliminate the virus had to be administered locally, which meant operation in uncontrolled environmental conditions and by non-professionals.

The test, which was developed with the support of the UK’s Department for International Development, was designed to be used by local people in the field and to give reliable results within minutes. It proved highly effective and the technology has been rolled out across Africa. This was particularly important in the later stages of the programme when pockets of the virus remained in war-torn areas of southern Sudan and Somalia. Dr Mike Baron of the IAH told BBC News that it had been too dangerous for outsiders to enter those areas. Experts, he said, would train locals – so called ‘barefoot vets’ – to recognise the disease and administer vaccines. They would work with nomadic tribesmen in the regions and vaccinate herds “on the move”.

This is hugely important to understand for the security community because it highlights how distributed and centralized systems of information can interoperate; two systems of thinking, if you will, one deliberative and controlled (follow the steps handed to you) while the other is exploratory and creative (design the steps for others to follow).

The cost of infection was extremely high as 70% of cattle infected would die. This surely gave the incentive for tests and vaccines to be taken seriously. It also probably is what enabled the broad collaboration across systems despite national, religious and ethic diversity.

…to begin with [in the 1960s] there was little to no co-ordination. Individual countries and groups of countries would attempt to vaccinate cattle, suppressing the disease for a while. But it would then re-appear. Progress was only made [in the 1990s] once large unified projects were established to tackle the disease.

A dedicated global campaign, combined with local administration, was necessary for eradication.

Conflict in Ethiopia and Somalia in the 1980s was the main obstacle to the vaccination campaigns but there were other problems too. UC Davis has an excellent write-up about issues of trust, competition and complex economics that were overcome by an Ethiopian scientist in America armed only with an elegantly simple and stable test and vaccine.

The new vaccine proved amazingly powerful in protecting cattle, even when they were injected with 1,000 times a fatal dose of rinderpest. And it met all of Yilma’s criteria for simplicity and heat stability. Requiring no syringes or needles, the vaccine could easily be scratched onto the neck or abdomen of the animal, producing sufficient immune response to ward off the rinderpest virus. Later, the herder could just peel the scab from an animal’s immunization site, grind it up in a saline solution and, from a single calf, have 250,000 additional doses for future vaccinations.

What happens next? Here is an interesting side-note in the NYT:

Still to be decided is how much virus to keep frozen in various countries’ laboratories, along with tissue from infected animals and stocks of vaccine, which is made from live virus. Virologists like to have samples handy for research, but public health experts, fearing laboratory accidents or acts of terrorism, usually press to destroy as much as possible. The smallpox virus is officially supposed to exist only in two lab freezers, one in Atlanta and one in Moscow.

This brings me back to the Italian invasion of Ethiopia. Rinderpest has been associated with wars and invasions; arguably introduced as a form of biological warfare. The first Italian invasion of 1888 destroyed the capital and foundation of social relations in the Horn of Africa by killing 90% of livestock. Rinderpest also was followed by smallpox but the complete collapse of food sources intensified local disputes and withered resistance. Anyone who wonders if Italy could have had this role only needs to look to the second Italian invasion in 1935, which involved heavy use of mustard gas, tear gas and other agents as well as bombing of field hospitals.

Was Rinderpest unintentionally carried or sent as a strategic weapon? Rinderpest is still listed as “biological warfare” agent so keeping it in Atlanta or Moscow seems like an incredibly high risk practice.

Hi-tech Attack Sub Exposed

All the latest technology and training in the world was apparently no match for the shallow waters near Skye. The BBC says the Royal Navy’s newest, biggest and most powerful attack submarine — the HMS Astute — has run aground and exposed itself.

Aside from attack capabilities, it is able to sit in waters off the coast undetected, delivering the UK’s special forces where needed or even listening to mobile phone conversations.

Unless, of course, it runs aground. Well, at least out of those three capabilities they can still listen to phone conversations.

There is some chance the mistake is related to a new “platform management system”.

Speaking to the BBC last month, HMS Astute’s commanding officer, Commander Andy Coles, said: “We have a brand new method of controlling the submarine, which is by platform management system, rather than the old conventional way of doing everything of using your hands.

“This is all fly-by-wire technology including only an auto pilot rather than a steering column.”

Auto pilot? Every auto pilot I ever have used at sea has failed. The phrase also brings to mind the Exxon Valdez disaster, which was related to late night maneuvers outside the shipping lane while on autopilot.

Some interesting trivia about the HMS Astute can be found on Marine Buzz:

  1. Longer than 10 London buses
  2. Wider than 4 London buses
  3. Consumes 18,000 sausages every 10 weeks*, yet only has five toilets for 98 crew
  4. Produces oxygen from sea water and can purify the on-board atmosphere (see #3)

*approximately 2.623 sausages per crew member every day

Just when you thought stone and feet were confusing, now they have a London bus metric — 1/10 the size of the new class of attack submarine, and 1/4 the width. The next time a bus is late it will be hard not to say “maybe it ran aground”.

The Royal Navy boasts about their sub technology in the following video:

“We are something different. Something for the 21st Century.”

How to Make Quality Technology

An excellent lecture with common sense. RSA Animate illustrates why profit is not the best motivator for quality.

First, I disagree with the start of the presentation. The science is not freaky or surprising. People are still as manipulatable and predictable as ever. I explain this in my social engineering presentation where I demonstrate common fraud methods. Profit may be less important than American economists thought, but it reminds me that economists study…profit. Only an economist would say it is “irrational” to play an instrument. Social engineering experts, or even anthropologists and political scientists, are obviously going to be less likely to focus on profit when researching motivational factors. They see people manipulated by things like pride, prejudice and authority and realize that in many cases none of it is profit. With economists it really should be no surprise that profit is not always the prime motivator. This lecture concludes that mastery, purpose and contribution are motivators but there are others as well.

Second, I have to question why economists were ever under this impression (the lecturer says he believed only in profit three years ago). Why did they see profit as the sole and only motivator? I bet a huge clue is right at the start of the lecture when he says “mechanical skill” is very successfully manipulated by profit motive in business. Immediately it comes to mind that Henry Ford, Thomas Edison, and other industrialists were proponents of mechanical skill.

Perhaps it is from this era that a perception of a beautiful assembly-line with profit as motive became some kind of ideal. An American could create massive wealth as owner of a highly mechanized system of production. Inventor of the car was not Ford, Inventor of the light bulb was not Edison. I have seen scant evidence they believed in incentives for innovation, just output that allowed high margins. The Ford company showed this in spades over the past ten years when they pumped out SUVs for profit at a time when they could have innovated in hybrid cars with a purpose. That decision almost killed them, even though they had a few good years before the crash.

Ford and Edison, who actually were good friends, believed growth through profit incentives was the ideal path for everyone else because they saw it as their own path of success. Those who could produce more product, garner more profit, wrote the story of motivation. Ford not only did not innovate but he struggled with the basic concept of changing paint colors in cars to let consumers innovate and differentiate from each other. Edison meanwhile never actually invented anything (am I getting too excited here?) — he actually setup a warehouse full of mostly immigrants, poorly paid, who were hired to invent for him and then put his name on whatever they came up with. The inferior lightbulb he produced (inefficient use of energy and short life) was highly successful because it was produced faster than anything else and more consistently. His profit motive led to more profit than his competition, which enabled him to win in a race for profitability and NOT good product. Easy to see how mechanical skills were the focus of the empire he built. Americans came to believe in him as an inventor because he had great marketing and cash in the bank.

Regardless of whether you buy into my hypothesis (rant?) about Ford and Edison it stands to reason that other incentives, such as purpose, existed all along; they have been just poorly represented as goals against those who were profit driven and used their profit to market a particular vision of success. Nonetheless the mechanical skill view had many more years of success examples before losing much of its appeal. It carried the country all the way through the difficult 1940s. The Sherman tank, for example, was not superior or innovative but it was produced at a much faster pace than the enemy’s. A German Tiger tank would often face three or more Sherman (there were roughly 50 times as many Shermans on the ground to fight the Tigers). The Americans knew, in other words, that they were at high risk when put head-to-head against a tank better-suited for its purpose (longer range with better armor). However the US did not choose to improve quality, despite risk, when they found mechanical skill and assembly-lines (produced faster than anything else and more consistently) also achieved results.

Return for a moment to the question of why economists are surprised. The 1950s saw the vision of profit as motive begin to unravel in America as disillusionment was expressed by the likes of Kerouac; he said why work so hard in highly mechanical tasks if profit (margin and/or quantity) may never come but also was never truly fulfilling. This divergence from profit as a prime motive really came undone by the late 1960s during economically innovative years of “goodwill” and “free” stores that “recycled” without profit. This seems like yet another example of why economists have no reason to be surprised, but I’ll leave that thread for another day because it also touches on interesting points about compliance and regulation.

Back to the lecture it says the economists noticed their new test actually works outside the US. They position this as proof that purpose as motive is not an anomaly. I say this actually proves that the US is the anomaly. It works elsewhere because it should not have been a surprise in America; a period of rapid and dynamic mechanical skill growth with money as a motivator in the US does not mean the other motives never existed or would not come back. The industrial revolution through fabrication and mechanization generated a fascination so intense it even bled into sports — baseball, football and basketball — that are highly mechanical in nature and reward. Compare their program, run, stop, review, repeat and incentive system to a game of soccer.

With all that being said it also is notable that innovation in America has typically come from those not working with profit as their prime motivator. Post-it notes are a fun example. The proof is right under our noses. Those who say Apple is highly innovative have to prove it to me; as a life-long Apple consumer I don’t buy it. Show me an iPhone and I will give you a list of all the ideas it incorporates from others. All the way back to the first mouse debate it was clear to me that Jobs and Woz are the best at refining others’ ideas, not creating new ones. This is not to say they are driven only by profit, but it sure fits their motivation profile a lot better than Einstein’s.

If you still don’t believe me. I will go into much more depth on this when I present on the “Top Ten Breaches” next Wednesday at the RSA Conference in London. How does this fit security, you might ask?

The best defense prepares for attacks other than the ones motivated by profit alone — the most dangerous attacker may not be profit motivated at all. Likewise, the best defense is developed through incentives other than profit. As the lecturer points out, bugs will be fixed for free and much sooner if you can accept and promote motivations outside of profit. It is through these two views of security management that we really are looking at ways to find quality. I hope to see you there.

“German” al-Qaeda killed by Drone

The big result of a drone attack is further evidence that foreigners are fighting for al-Qaeda in Waziristan

The Germans are neither the first nor the only Western nationals living in these parts.

Indeed, since 2008, an increasing number of Europeans and North American nationals are known to have travelled into Pakistan’s tribal regions.

The Europeans nationalities include Dutch, German, French and British.

It reminds me of a bartender in Hamburg several years ago who insisted that I am German because of my name.

“You are German” he said.

“No, I am American” I replied, trying to sound resolved.

“You are German” he said with the same look and tone, as if I had not heard him the first time. “You should take your land and be proud you are German”.

“Ok, fine, Kerem. You win I am German like you are Turkish” I said. “When will you claim your land in Turkey?”

“No, I am not Turkish. You are German” he said.

It also reminds me of a bartender in Paris who told me he was an Argentinian; he became a French citizen through service with the Foreign Legion under a declared identity. He was completely fluent in English, French, Spanish, Italian, German and probably other languages. I couldn’t figure out why he was a bartender and I wondered if his declared identity is what made him Argentinian.

“I do it for fun, to pass the time” he said.

“Well, then what do you do for vacation?” I asked, perhaps naively.

“Next week I will camp in the mountains of Italy for a week, alone” he explained.

It did not sound like a camping trip. There was no mention of roads, landmarks, a hiking trail or a campsite, just vague references to a region in Italy very near the border of another country. Then he proceeded to tell me about one of his missions in Djibouti where he guarded a border by shooting heavy machine guns at anything that came within range, including school buses. The segue was odd, but not lost on me.

Later, when I assembled the parts of the stories he told me, I realized he most likely was one of the infamous mercenaries that were based in Paris and experts in esprit de corps. Maybe he trained and traded weapons; a consultant for whomever would pay his price. Maybe he ended up being listed as a “foreigner” in a news story like the latest drone strike.

A drone strike in North earlier in September killed a British national named Abdul Jabbar who had been living in Punjab province.

A British security source told the BBC’s Newsnight programme that Jabbar was being groomed to head an al-Qaeda offshoot in the UK.

Edited to add: The BBC also reports that the US has hired mercenaries linked to the Taliban to guard American bases.

A Senate report has found evidence that many Afghan security personnel paid with US taxpayers’ money to guard American bases are hand in glove with the Taliban insurgents hell-bent on killing coalition troops.

While you have Germans working for the Taliban in Afghanistan, it may be the Taliban are working for the US and may even be on bases.