Diesel = Winning

The Economist in 2011 made a salient point about the future of gasoline vehicles:

For Toyota, taking BMW’s diesel engines is a tacit admission that its hybrid strategy does not cut it in Europe.

That means a gasoline-hybrid strategy is failing. A diesel-hybrid strategy, however, would have worked.

Two years later, today, the Economist admits the race is over. Diesel has won. Gasoline is dying.

The Toyota Prius hybrid? A lowly twentieth on the league table of the most economical fuel-sippers, with 4.2 litres/100km, along with higher emissions of carbon dioxide. The 19 cars having better fuel economy than the Prius hybrid are all clean diesels.

It really makes you wonder why we don’t have a hybid-diesel option instead of a hybrid-gasoline in America. At least GM has finally taken the lead domestically by releasing a passenger-car diesel option. It’s not the car they talked about in 2008, but it’s a start.

The Economist, however, is still thinking about the past. Instead of pointing out modern diesels already are available in America, they tell us diesels are on their way and Mazda is “leading”. This sounds like nonsense to me:

Later this year, Americans will get their first chance to experience what a really advanced diesel is like—and why Europeans opt for diesels over hybrids, plug-in electrics and even petrol-powered cars. [Mazda’s] diesel has 30% better fuel economy and provides oodles more pulling power. Good as the petrol version is, motorists who choose it over the diesel will miss out on a lot.

I’ll tell you why their “first chance” talk is nonsense. Look at the Economist analysis of what has changed.

“What marks this latest generation of diesel engines from even their ‘common-rail’ predecessors of the late 1990s…”

That’s a 20-year old reference — too far back to talk about predecessors. Several major generations of engine have hit American shores in-between the “late 1990s” and today. Why not compare current engines with those Americans have been driving in the 2000s?

Most notably was a major shift in 2004 when California regulated small passenger diesels out of the state (politics prevented regulation of the larger engines until later). Another major point was in 2008 when they re-appeared. This was no secret to the Economist. They wrote about it in an article called “Diesel’s second coming.”

America’s first chance to experience new diesel engine technology was around 2005 (when new VW TDIs were introduced) and then again in 2008 (when VW’s diesel won car of the year). I would call 2004 and 2008 models the predecessors, taking us into the late-2013 technology.

So much for America’s “first chance”.

Perhaps it is fair to say some people haven’t really been excited by diesel engines since the 1990s (the Economist gave Fiat Research an award) but who cares if those people have been asleep at their wheel since then. The Economist is not excused from doing research on the past decade of innovation.

It has been clear over the past ten years that diesel has achieved a pole position for increasing mpg while reducing emissions and providing performance and power. Combined with an electric motor, we’re talking over 100 mpg and a fun driving experience. Volvo sold-out every diesel-hybrid targeted for France before they even left the factory.

Still, some are confused. Editors at Forbes offer us this non-prediction:

…it’s not yet obvious whether electric vehicles, diesels, or even compressed natural gas vehicles (there are millions in countries such as Iran and Brazil) will ultimately take the checkered flag in the race for efficiency

Millions in Iran? Never thought I would hear Forbes suggest Iran as a model of efficiency. Experts on Iran seem to paint it in the opposite light, a study of waste and unsustainable inefficiency:

…poor resource management have contributed to rapidly growing energy consumption and high energy intensity for the past decades.

What Forbes is really saying is “let’s study engines in countries with domestic natural resources”. This is NOT a good equation. No wonder Forbes is confused.

To me there is no question. The race for efficiency is really a race for freedom from resource dependence, related to national security. Diesel = winning.

The answer is obviously diesel-hybrid, given American driver habits/needs. No other engine competes when it comes to sustainability. As I have written here since 2005, it is the safest, easiest to deploy, most-resilient and yet best performing of all. It is no coincidence the military prefers diesel.

Natural gas presents an interesting alternative to the pollution of coal plants but, as the Economist itself has written in the past, it fails miserably with a car engine. It gets about the same mpg as gasoline with far less performance. Same problem as ethanol. That means a significant cost added to manufacturing with marginal benefits.

Electric vehicles are great performers, perfect for urbanites, yet they lack range and cost far too much to enter the market at a broad base. They also have major additional costs to factor such as battery maintenance and replacement, not to mention the occasional unexplained explosion and fire (e.g. even Boeing claimed they didn’t see it coming).

Both natural gas and electric also require an overhaul to American infrastructure to enable vehicles with special engines. That’s a pipe-dream (pun intended) and about as likely as hydrogen. When you think about how long broadband has taken to be upgraded in America, and how inexpensive that infrastructure is compared to fuel lines…

I wouldn’t bet against diesel-hybrid.

American Fear of a Non-Motorized Planet

The area around Polk Street in San Francisco has experienced a high level of bicycle accidents. It has been ranked in the top five most dangerous streets. I can support this both quantitatively and qualitatively. Through nearly three decades of commuting by bicycle in the Twin Cities, London, Los Angeles and San Francisco the only place I have been hit by cars (twice!) is San Francisco.

In fact, in 1993 for more than six months day-or-night, rain-or-shine I rode 20 miles every day in central London and never once had impact with vehicles. (Other risks were higher: I was stopped and detained by anti-terror police once and I eventually was forced to reduce my daily ride time after a GP diagnosed me with serious respiratory damage from diesel-sulfur pollution).

Naturally the San Francisco Bicycle Coalition is looking at the same data. They work on traffic flow changes with urban planners to encourage cycling and reduce harm spots. This means increasing of non-motorist traffic, supporting higher-density of consumers and increasing sales for local businesses.

Studies have proven that an increase in safety for cyclists creates so much more non-motorized traffic that flow calculations have to be adjusted. Urban planners in London used to assume non-motorized traffic would equate to a quarter of a space used by motorized vehicles. It turns out to be much higher. This is an amazing development when you consider the potential density of bicycles and how much space is wasted by automobiles.

Separate Transport for London figures already show that cyclists now make 570,000 trips in London every day compared with 290,000 trips in 2001.

Blackfriars, Waterloo and London bridges are all now among the top 10 busiest cycle streets in London. On all of these, cyclists make up 42 per cent of traffic and 15 per cent of people – though they take up just 12 per cent of road space.

Almost 9,300 riders – 11 a minute – cross London Bridge a day.

Why aren’t more people cycling, given the obvious advantages? Turns out that even as bicycling is soaring it has been held back by safety concerns linked directly to automobile-centric thinking.

The inquiry heard that more than 42 per cent of Britons own a bicycle, but only 2 per cent of journeys in the UK are made by bike.

Many people who would like to cycle do not feel safe enough, and the inquiry heard that all road projects and urban development must include high-quality cycle lanes as part of the planning process.

In 1904 20% of traffic in London was by bicycle. It’s now planning to return to that level again because of increased value it brings across the board to a city (healthier citizens, cleaner air, higher density, lower infrastructure cost, more resilient to disasters, etc.) Look at how safety factors into their mayoral plan — a plan to reduce threat and harm from automobiles:

  1. A Tube network for the bike. London will have a network of direct, joined-up cycle tracks, with many running in parallel with key Underground, rail and bus routes
  2. Safer streets for the bike. Spending on the junction review will be significantly increased and substantial improvements to the worst junctions will be prioritised. With government help, a range of radical measures will improve the safety of cyclists around large vehicles
  3. More people travelling by bike. We will ‘normalise’ cycling, making it something anyone feels comfortable doing
  4. Better places for everyone. The new bike routes are a step towards the Mayor’s vision of a ‘village in the city’, with more trees, more space for pedestrians and less traffic

Let’s look at what higher density of more consistent-speed traffic really means.

In terms of commercial return, ask any shop owner or real-estate agent if they would rather see 1 customer enter their sales funnel or 10X customers. Instead of a single person taking up a giant parking space, or a full lane, we see the potential for 10X traffic for less cost. We also know that street-level advertisements (signs and store-fronts) are more effective on pedestrians and cyclists. That’s the kind of low-impact scalability model any modern urban space should be rushing towards. You’d expect retailers to be leading the charge.

Despite these facts, many American businesses seem to be up in arms instead. Lose a parking space? Never. Look at the data? Impossible.

Believe it or not, some Americans consider pedestrian harm collateral damage acceptable in their automobile-centric life. And if the subtext to that culture isn’t obvious enough, it’s based in racism cloaked in the “privilege” of wealth to afford a vehicle. When non-whites are disadvantaged systemically into remaining below a line of poverty, whites use concepts like property owner (car, house) to declare themselves “better” and more deserving of rights. Indeed, there are huge fines and felony charges for a car that damages property yet often none at all for killing a human.

A resistance to progress, despite obvious gains in traffic and better living conditions, comes from those who argue every parking spot translates to direct positive impact to the value of their property. The same group also seem to believe everyone can win a dead-end race to own the biggest vehicle on the road to stay safe and that pollution is a necessary evil within wealth accumulation.

It turns out that more carefully planned parking spaces, and even reduced motorized traffic flow, has an increased value to property investments. This is the converse of what car parking extremist believe. Of course common sense proves this. Suburbs, with the highest percentage of parking, struggle to hold value while urban spaces attract more people than ever despite a lack of car parking.

Consider also that the rate of driving is declining as people realize an American model of excessive automobile ownership (e.g. being stranded without a car) is the opposite of true quality-of-life values. Transportation options that make spaces clean and quiet with lower barrier to entry are where people are wisely spending money now (see “Young People Aren’t Buying Cars” and “Young Americans Lead Trend to Less Driving“)

So I just noticed that Boston news is facing a similar debate as in SF.

“There seems to be a knee-jerk reaction to the eliminated parking wherever something like this is proposed.” said Pete Stidman, executive director of the Boston Cyclists Union. “We think if it was fixed up and made safer, you’d see an even huger increase in cycling there.”

Hayes Morrison, Somerville’s director of Transportation & Infrastructure, said the city has reviewed the street with two parking studies, finding that there is ample parking available, and would continue to be after the reconstruction and loss of spaces.

Think about why a Boston or San Francisco is far more desirable to live in than a Los Angeles. It is like asking why people prefer to live near green spaces, parks and bicycle lanes instead of dangerous and polluted petroleum gulches like Polk St.

Trust me, I commuted by bicycle in Los Angeles in 1995 after I left London. It was nearly impossible. Bike lanes literally dead-ended at freeways with no options. I spent hours trying to map out routes that someone could actually ride and not be stranded by planners who ignored non-motorized traffic.

Bottom line is that areas of a city that have safe bicycle traffic will be the areas of density and prosperity growth. Cleaner, quieter…fewer cars, less parking, yet more people means better living. By comparison, neighborhoods that emphasize car parking are higher-risk, less desirable, less able to sustain heavy traffic and will lose value. Wasted space makes commerce more expensive with less return.

Until Polk street allows reasonable pathways for non-motorized traffic we all should avoid spending money in that area. Take your business elsewhere (e.g. Mission, Haight, FiDi), places that are working to maximize quality of life, reduce injury, and let us breathe easier. It’s time to support areas invested in sustainable value. Stop protecting dead spaces for empty cars.

New GM Diesel Sportscar Beats Camaro Z/28

You may have noticed I’m fond of comparing highly-efficient diesel engines to sports cars. Two years ago I was writing comments on security blogs

I mean a four-door all-wheel-drive station wagon made by Volvo is expected to be available next year that delivers better horsepower than a Ferrari 308 and a Camaro Z28, yet will also provide 100 mpg. That should have been an American made vehicle.

And I was shamelessly plugging the same example into my security presentations (red cars at the bottom are the Ferrari and the Camaro)

In short, it seemed pretty cool to me that a modern Volvo diesel station wagon could get over 100mpg yet give better performance than a Camaro Z/28.

I see now that GM has actually delivered on this performance level themselves with their new Cruze Diesel. GM announced it as Cruze Clean Turbo Diesel Delivers Classic Muscle Car Torque.

Similarly, Jalopnik has run the headline “New Chevy Cruze Diesel And ‘72 Camaro Z/28 Are Basically The Same Car

…better than a 350z, an Esprit Turbo (but not an Esprit V8) and a Ferrari F355. And it gets better fuel economy!

Cruzen on a Tractor
Cruze’n on a Tractor

That’s what I’m talking about! No, wait. Cruze beats the Z/28. What do they mean same? A Z/28 would spend way more dollars and hours at a pump. In any race over distance Cruze wins.

258 ft-lb torque, 46 mpg, 717 miles/tank
(horsepower is dead)

Jalopnik is being facetious. I’m not. If Cruze was a diesel-electric hybrid, like the Volvo, it would beat the Z/28 on 0-60 also.

That shadow image comes from GM…dislike. The shadow should be a bald eagle flying, a running wolf, something that shows American freedom and performance. The shadow is meant to look like “classic muscle” but instead looks to me like a dirty, smelly tractor. And that would be exactly the wrong image to sell a diesel sportscar. Classic muscle? It doesn’t even sound good.

Incidentally, if you get the gasoline version of the same car they’ll tell you it can get almost 40 mpg. You have to search the fine-print to find that gasoline gets 100 ft-lb less torque. NO thanks on the gasoline engine.

Engine: Diesel Gas
Torque 258 148
MPG 46 36
Cost $25K $18K

 

The Cruze site points out that it outperforms the VW, which (surprise) is priced the same. Makes sense they’re going head-to-head with another diesel in the market and price-matching but here too, dislike.

Instead they should have a number of vehicles to compare against. Where’s my selector so I can do head-to-head with Ford, Kia, Toyota, Subaru…?

And let’s see an ad with a Cruze Diesel versus a Prius pulling five people plus bags off the line. THAT would be funny.

Or GM could poke a little fun at itself and show a race between a Cruze and a Z/28 that includes fuel stops.

Or they could FOCUS on hitting Ford hard (pathetic 36 mpg max, no diesel option) and they could put up a fleet vehicle calculation engine that shows how you can save $20 million.

I mean let’s talk about an easy buy decision. Do you want 46 mpg in a hotrod turbocharged clean diesel from GM versus a slow and thirsty Ford? BOOM, done. Do you want your city to save millions every year in staff time and cost, and reduce pollution? BOOM, done.

Going in a stock white sock up against a sexy dark grey VW with a long-standing following…mmm, not such a good idea.

2013 BSidesLV: Data Breach Panel

Come to BSides Las Vegas this year and see a discussion on breaches that promises to be heated and thorny but far from deserted.

A burglar steals an unencrypted powered-down laptop containing PII and is immediately hit and killed by a bus. Data breach? As more laws are passed there remain many difficult questions to answer. This panel will try. Come see opposed minds in the industry debate the ethics and economics of incident response and related regulations. We will debate things like: have the past 10 years of breach legislation helped or hurt our efforts in information security? When is a breach really a breach? Is it wrong to say any loss of control is a breach and must be reported? Do you agree there no safe harbor for encryption? Is it unduly costly on society if our breach definition is too broad?

Time: 12:30pm
Date: Aug 1
Location: G
Participants:

  • Steve Werby
  • Phil Hagen
  • George Hulme
  • Jack Daniel
  • Raymond Umerley
  • Davi Ottenheimer

Length:

    Until Jack admits he’s wrong