All posts by Davi Ottenheimer

Rear view mirrors are small for a reason

I had to give my “rear-view” lecture the other day and so I thought I should just jot down a note here as an easy reminder. In nutshell, when looking forward you should be careful not to fixate on the little mirror on your windshield. Avoiding past mistakes, and learning is vital, but data about where you have been is not necessarily the best thing going forward. A turn in the road, for example…

The general manager of the Australia Computer Emergency Response Team (AusCERT), Graham Ingram, gives an excellent example in a recent article about virus writers are researching the top anti-virus systems in order to bypass them:

“The most popular brands of antivirus on the market… have an 80 percent miss rate… So if you are running these pieces of software, eight out of 10 pieces of malicious code are going to get in,” said Ingram.

Although Ingram didn’t mention any of the leading losers by name, Gartner’s figures for 2005 show that Symantec is the clear leader with 53.6 percent of the market. McAfee and Trend own 18.8 percent and 13.8 percent of the market respectively.

One vendor Ingram did mention was Russian outfit Kaspersky, which in the same tests managed to block around 90 percent of new malware.

According to Gartner, Kaspersky’s market share is a lowly 0.7 percent.

I actually think there is more to the difference between a pure-play anti-virus company like Kaspersky and f-prot and a “we’ll sell you anything you’ll buy” Symantec and McAfee. But even if we accept Ingram’s premise that the big vendors are losing relevance because they are a bigger target, it should make people think twice before assuming that just because Symantec helped them get around the last bend, they no longer need to pay attention to the road ahead.

Another example, also in recent news, is of the Israeli army adapting to Hizbullah tactics. The Hizbullah have not only acquired sophisticated arms (supplied by China via Iran — more on that another day), but Hizbullah has a series of complex tactics, tunnels and civilian targets that provides them the element of surprise. The traditional Israeli armor-based strategy has backfired as enemy anti-tank missles turn the Merkava and APC into death-traps. Instead, the Israelis have turned things upside-down and have adopted traditional troops on the ground to diffuse the effectiveness of anti-tank missles (no clear target), coupled with sniper nests to pick out the Hizbullah embedded among the women and children. You might say that the Israelis keep an eye on where they have been, but they also adapt quickly to where they are trying to go.

16 to 24 yr olds online only 3hr/wk?

I just read some fun data on the BBC regarding the UK Office of Communications (Ofcom) 2006 report.

It does not surprise me that young adults are usually far more prone to adopt new trends and be responsive to changes in technology that give them advantages (call it the “more free time to explore less disposable cash phenomenon” if you will). But one thing did surprise me, from the BBC article:

Sixteen to 24 year olds, it reports, spend nearly three hours on the net each week.

Nearly three hours a week? That can’t be right, or the numbers must conceal something like a group that doesn’t have access. I believe that the amount of time online for this age group will soon surpass three hours a day, especially if you count mobile phones and handheld devices that are “connected”.

The actual report gives some food for thought:

16-24 year olds spend on average 21 minutes more time online per week, send 42 more SMS text messages, but spend over seven hours less time watching television.

[…]

3G mobile services are now available to over 90% of the population and the proportion of unbundled exchanges is up ten percentage points on 2004.

So I think the more challenging question soon will be, in terms of the convergence of emerging technology, what these numbers will look like when you can watch television on your 3G mobile devices and send SMS text messages from your television.

Disks still not being properly cleaned

I feel like I read a story like this one every year. Someone buys or finds an old hard drive and tries to recover the data. They then manage to expose the fact that people still do not properly erase information on disks before discarding them to the wild:

The research – which was based on 317 computer hard drives obtained from the UK, North America, Germany and Australia – showed just how many people believe in the data fairy: though 41% of the disks were unreadable, 20% contained sufficient information to identify individuals, 5% of the disks held commercial information on organisations ranging in the UK from Man Trucks to Easington Council, and included records of a Children’s Day Care centre.

There was also illegal information with 5% of the disks holding “illicit data” and 1% of the disks bearing paedophile information. As a result, a criminal investigation has been launched in South Wales and another one in Australia.

[…]

Just how compromising and thorough the information stored on computers can be was demonstrated by data obtained from disks belonging to Port Weller Dry Dock, a Canadian ship building company.

On the drives was information that showed the company had details on a bid for the US Navy’s top secret DD21 destroyer programme, part of a US defence programme intended to equip the US navy for the 21st century.

This problem can either get better or worse with the new era of online archive and storage solutions. In other words, people can transfer the issue of handling stored data to a service-based system but can they trust that such a service will do any better job than the companies in this study?

Jon Godfrey, from Life Cycle Services, has a nice quote in the story:

“People get worried about losing data on computers but they don’t realise that erasure is as important as retention. The survey shows that the commercial sector is still chronically ignorant of the destruction and retention of data, and our experience is that the problem is actually worse than the study suggests.”

Actually, studies also show that people do not get worried about losing data. So it is perhaps more accurate to say that people simply do not always understand the risks and/or are unequipped and untrained to handle them.

Correlating AOL search IDs to real people

The NY Times has picked up the AOL fiasco story and brought it home:

A Face Is Exposed for AOL Searcher No. 4417749

Buried in a list of 20 million Web search queries collected by AOL and recently released on the Internet is user No. 4417749. The number was assigned by the company to protect the searcher’s anonymity, but it was not much of a shield.

No. 4417749 conducted hundreds of searches over a three-month period on topics ranging from “numb fingers� to “60 single men� to “dog that urinates on everything.�

And search by search, click by click, the identity of AOL user No. 4417749 became easier to discern. There are queries for “landscapers in Lilburn, Ga,� several people with the last name Arnold and “homes sold in shadow lake subdivision gwinnett county georgia.�

It did not take much investigating to follow that data trail to Thelma Arnold, a 62-year-old widow who lives in Lilburn, Ga., frequently researches her friends’ medical ailments and loves her three dogs. “Those are my searches,� she said, after a reporter read part of the list to her.

I can only assume that the woman who is the subject of this story, as well as the reporter, understand the significance of personalizing the issue.

I can honestly say I am glad I have not been using AOL, although I have nothing to hide. I suppose it is the same feeling as being glad I do not drive cars with exploding tires, even though I consider myself a safe driver.

One of the lessons for AOL will probably be to have a legal, privacy and security approval for any and all data transfers with external entities. I have to believe that their lawyers and security team had no idea that someone was going to post search data for public consumption, and this will probably become a good part of the discussion going forward (if not already).