Foreign Affairs published a Koch brothers propaganda puff piece today, attributed to Michael C. Desch of Notre Dame.

Why?

It plays dumb while trying to be serious and claim that Ukraine should surrender to Russia. Of course Koch nuts would say that. They dropped it hot during live negotiations, as if academics are just hired guns to provide cover for whatever the Trump administration is about to impose on Kyiv. The author and all that big money behind him however give away the game.

The article is titled plainly “Ukraine Is Losing the War” without a timeline. Today? Last year? Always and forever no matter what? See the dumb trick?

Then it is subtitled “With Moscow Pressing Its Advantage, Kyiv Should Trade Land for Peace.” In just 5,000 words it manages to stumble and crash into at least nine major logical contradictions.

Given how much disinformation was being stuffed down the throat of Foreign Affairs editors, it should surprise nobody Russian-language media was celebrating within hours of publication. Yet the historical reasoning alone would fail any LSE seminar I ever took. Foreign Affairs owes its readers an explanation, if not a retraction. In the meantime, I’ll take a poke at what’s really going on.

Desch Keeps Punching Himself in the Nuts

#	Desch Claims	Then Also Claims	Nut Punch
1	Mass and resources make Ukrainian resistance futile	Post-surrender Ukraine should build drone defenses and pursue battlefield innovation	Prescribes the same technology-over-mass strategy he spent 3,000 words saying doesn’t work
2	Russian war aims expanded at every stage (Minsk to recognition to annexation of four oblasts)	Conceding the Donbas would satisfy Moscow	His own evidence documents serial escalation after each accommodation
3	The Donbas is not the Sudetenland because Russian tactics are not blitzkrieg	—	Munich was about appeasement dynamics, not Wehrmacht tactics. Refutes a comparison nobody made
4	At current rates it would take Russia 30 years to conquer east-bank Ukraine	Ukraine should stop fighting and lose Western support	The 30-year timeline depends on the Western assistance he wants to end
5	Ukraine’s 36 million population cannot match Russia’s 140 million	Russia has 700,000 troops in theater vs. Ukraine’s 300,000	Operational ratio is 2.3:1, not the 4:1 demographic ratio he leads with
6	Russia’s GDP at PPP is $7 trillion vs. Ukraine’s $657 billion	—	PPP inflates domestic purchasing power, not capacity to buy weapons on international markets. Nominal GDP puts Russia near Italy
7	Ukrainian corruption undermines fortifications and recruitment	Russia’s corruption is absorbed by its size	Russian corruption collapsed logistics at Kyiv, lost 1,000+ tanks, and sank the Moskva. Scale multiplies procurement corruption
8	Western technology has not given Ukraine a decisive edge	Russian technological innovation (fiber-optic drones, ISR-enabled artillery) is providing decisive advantages	Technology is irrelevant when the West provides it, decisive when Russia deploys it
9	The Surovikin Line proves Ukraine cannot breach fortified positions	Ukraine should not build similar fortifications because Russian infiltration defeats them	Russian fortifications work. Ukrainian fortifications would not. Logic runs whichever way the conclusion needs

The table speaks for itself, hopefully. Foreign Affairs should be ashamed. Now let’s look deeper at the disinformation methods.

Rigged Numbers

Desch compares Ukraine’s population of 36 million to Russia’s 140 million as though Russia can send its entire male population to just one meat grinder.

Russia has a 4,000-mile border with China, commitments in Syria, internal security requirements across eleven time zones, and a domestic economy that requires workers. His own operational numbers of 300,000 Ukrainian troops versus 700,000 Russian show a much narrower gap than raw population figures, but he buries this operational reality under a demographic spectacle.

Why?

Then he uses purchasing power parity to inflate Russia’s GDP to $7 trillion, making it look like a near-peer competitor. Their nominal GDP, measuring the actual capacity to purchase weapons systems on international markets, deflates Russia’s economy to roughly the size of Italy’s. Everyone knows this and says it repeatedly. Russia is like Italy, yet he tries to make it seem so much bigger.

Again, why?

PPP measures how many bad haircuts you can buy in Novosibirsk, not how many precision-guided munitions could be imported.

Russian contract soldiers, known for their low morale, somehow get inflated as more motivated than Ukrainian conscripts. The piece inverts everything documented about defensive warfare psychology. Ukrainians are fighting for their homes. Russian “volunteers” are bored, annoyed, reluctant, disproportionately recruited from impoverished regions by financial incentives they distrust. The claim that cheap mercenaries outperform homeland defenders contradicts everything everyone knows about combat motivation.

Corruption as Hypocrisy

Desch flags corruption as undermining the war effort, but not Russian corruption. No, he acts like only corruption in Ukraine matters. Fortifications not built, recruitment compromised? He waves away Russian corruption by arguing it simply “absorbs the damage.” But Russian military corruption is the very reason they lost over a thousand tanks in the first year, the reason logistics collapsed north of Kyiv, the reason the Moskva sank. Scale does not neutralize corruption in military procurement. It actually multiplies it, meaning Ukraine has less of a problem.

Then he prescribes “comprehensive political and economic reforms” and “a serious anticorruption effort” for post-surrender Ukraine. Part of the reason for the war was Ukraine was cracking down on Russian corruption. Calling that a solution after the war is like totally ignoring the causes. If corruption undermines Ukrainian fortification-building during a war for survival, why would it suddenly resolve after a demoralizing territorial surrender? He identifies corruption as the disease and surrender to corruption as the cure.

Technology Only Works for the Hero

Desch argues that Western technology has not given Ukraine a decisive edge. He then spends several paragraphs detailing Russian technological innovation (e.g. fiber-optic drones, infiltration tactics, ISR-enabled artillery) as if these are decisive advantages. Well, which is it? Technology matters enormously when Russia deploys it. When the West provides it to Ukraine, suddenly it is irrelevant.

He cites the Surovikin Line as proof that Ukraine cannot advance through fortified positions. He then argues Ukraine should not bother building similar fortifications because Russian infiltration tactics can defeat them. Russian fortifications prove offense is impossible. Ukrainian fortifications would be useless against offense.

Follow the Money

Desch is not a random academic voice.

He sits on the advisory board of the John Quincy Adams Society, which is funded by the Charles Koch Foundation and operates within a “let bad guys win because profit” ecosystem that includes the Quincy Institute, Defense Priorities, and the Cato Institute’s foreign policy shop. His Notre Dame colleague Eugene Gholz sits on the same board. His daughter was a JQAS Marcellus Policy Fellow. Their ideological pipeline has consistent output toxic to analysts: NATO caused the problems, whatever they are, Ukraine is not vital to anyone, and the answer is accommodation of Russia because authoritarian rule is good for profit.

Desch has been saying exactly this since before the invasion. In January 2022, he told Newswise that “the way out of this crisis is the neutralization of Ukraine.” Weeks later, in February 2022, he told Notre Dame’s student paper that Russia was unlikely to invade because Putin was just posturing for diplomatic concessions. The full-scale invasion followed shortly after.

This Koch lineage now makes a funding trail into the case study of laundered influence.

Fred Koch built his fortune constructing oil refineries for Stalin’s Soviet Union in the 1930s, then built the third-largest refinery serving the Third Reich. Soviet money and Nazi money became Koch Industries money. He came home, co-founded the John Birch Society in 1958, called Eisenhower a communist dupe, fought the civil rights movement as a Soviet plot, and bankrolled McCarthyism. Charles Koch held a lifetime JBS membership and funded its bookstores distributing attacks on Martin Luther King.

The sons inherited the fortune of refined Soviet and Nazi crude. They laundered it through decades of right-wing institution-building, setting a precedent for Peter Thiel, and now fund academics arguing we should accommodate Russian territorial expansion. The empire that literally built Stalin’s oil infrastructure finances the intellectual apparatus telling us to let Moscow keep what it has taken.

This is how old big dirty money works.

No need to wire funds from the Kremlin direct to Notre Dame with a magazine piece purchase order. Instead, build infrastructure for dictators, convert profits into a political network, fund the network for generations, and eventually the network produces a Foreign Affairs article arguing that dictators should get to keep conquests so they can order more infrastructure. Ka-ching!

The money has been cleaned by the time it reaches the endowed chair. The conclusions are a starting point within the institution, to which evidence is curated.

Editorial Decision Time

Foreign Affairs historically publishes pieces aligned with administration policy preferences. This piece reads like pre-positioning and intellectual cover for whatever territorial concessions the Trump team plans to impose. Within hours, Pravda USA was summarizing it approvingly. The article’s framing maps perfectly onto Russian information warfare messaging.

I’m not saying Desch needs to coordinate with Moscow. It means the Koch school’s output gets laundered through Russian media with zero friction because the conclusions are structurally identical to what Putin needs.

Foreign Affairs editors know how to count logical contradictions, right?

They know what PPP does and does not measure, right?

They know the Munich analogy is about appeasement dynamics, not blitzkrieg tactics, right?

They know that prescribing post-surrender reform to a country whose wartime morale is already collapsing is not serious analysis, right?

They published this weak-sauce article anyway, on the day it would do the most work for Putin and Trump, by an author embedded in a network funded by a fortune that traces back to Stalin and Hitler.

Any trained historian can see what this is. Desch perhaps believes what he wrote, and maybe even enjoys the public self-flagellation. The question is why Foreign Affairs enabled him.

Trump lashed out at Canada, sounding like a syphilitic lunatic, ranting about healthy trade deals with China.

…China, who will “eat them up” within the first year!

Two days earlier at Davos, Trump explained: “Sometimes you need a dictator!”

His warning about China is especially notable, because Trump just ordered the Pentagon to lower preparedness for China.

The Defense Department said in an influential strategy document published Friday that the U.S. military’s top focus is no longer on China but instead the homeland and Western Hemisphere. […] “…concrete interests first. Previous administrations squandered our military advantages and the lives, goodwill, and resources of our people in grandiose nation-building projects and self-congratulatory pledges to uphold cloud-castle abstractions like the rules-based international order,” the report says.

Trump warning Canada that China will “eat them up”, while simultaneously downgrading China as a military priority, creates an incoherent threat narrative unless the actual target is invasion of Canada itself.

It’s explicitly a rejection of rules and order, replacing it with permanent improvisation.

The German dictatorship did not mean ‘law and order.’ The Third Reich lived in a state of permanent improvisation: the ‘movement’ once in power was robbed of its targets and instead extended its dynamic into the chaos of rival governmental authorities.

Note that it’s not America First, because it’s “concrete interests first”, which is another layer of disinformation. This elevates racism, greed, corruption, and graft as “concrete” for coin-operated use of Trump’s military force against rivals regardless of any laws. The Pentagon is being told to prepare to go to war with America… first.

All the breathless Monroe Doctrine references also fit into the disinformation. The Doctrine is a “cloud-castle” abstraction, a discredited imperial sphere-of-influence theory from 1823, and therefore can’t be used as his precedent.

Canada’s UN Ambassador Bob Rae called Trump policy what it really is, a “protection racket.”

In other words, Trump is threatened not by China, but by Canada escaping his protection racket through China. He’s angry at Canada because China proves he is weak, while telling everyone China doesn’t matter. It’s a “grab’em by the pussy” doctrine of punching down to feel tall, where might makes wrong and tries to get away with it.

Monroe wouldn’t allow it.

Trump fraudulently appropriates Monroe language to justify invasion of neighbors while explicitly doing the opposite of Monroe, by avoiding confrontation with the outside power. He’s laying the groundwork for invasion of Canada on the pretense of avoiding war with China, while claiming China is the reason for invading Canada.

That’s not Monroe, because that’s… Hitler’s method of disinformation and improvisation.

Canada now logically calls China “more predictable” than the US, a better leader and partner. That is because Trump’s anti-Monroe “concrete interests” formulation is a doctrine of no doctrines. It means decisions are case-by-case based on dictator whimsy, with no predictable rules, by Trump design. Everything is always defined only by one man, who takes everything only for himself and his closest sycophants.

Carl Schmitt’s “decisionism” (being promoted now by Peter Thiel) provides the Nazi theoretical framework that Trump is actually using: the sovereign is whoever decides the exception, and all law flows from that decision rather than constraining it. The basis of Nazism was racial ideology, like Trump’s MAGA as described by Fuentes, and Thiel’s decisionism is the operational method.

Trump’s territorial expansion therefore predictably follows Hitler, exactly: manufacture threat narratives about one actor (Bolshevism, encirclement) while the actual targets were neighbors (Austria, Czechoslovakia, Poland). The threat is faked to prevent the target from defending itself. “Protecting ethnic Germans” became the universal pretext for invasion and resource extraction that could be applied anywhere regardless of facts.

Rapid deflation of American power is as obvious as the fall of Nazism, since nobody likes Hitler doctrine but Nazis. Trump obsesses about invading countries to corrupt and pillage them, such as Canada along with Greenland, Panama and Venezuela, and offers absolutely nothing in return if you disagree. His new Pentagon document will soon classify those who disobey him as his primary threat.

The Pentagon is already operationalizing the improvisation. The Joint Chiefs just convened an unprecedented meeting of all 34 Western Hemisphere military leaders for February 11. Meanwhile, U.S. forces continue war crimes, murdering more than 120 civilians in 35 attacks since September, framed as a “drug war”. The false pretense is just for expansion of a military dictatorship over the entire hemisphere.

This “technocracy technate” map from the 1930s illustrates the organizational ambition behind the Pentagon meeting—hemispheric consolidation under authoritarian control. Elon Musk’s Canadian grandfather promoted this vision until he was arrested as an enemy of the state for basically being a Nazi.

This inevitably will bring global alignment with the EU and China for protection from the lunatic dictator Trump. Already, people around the world describe America as operating on the level of Iran or North Korea. Reporters Without Borders just released a report warning Trump’s “increasingly authoritarian tactics could eventually descend to” the levels of “ruthless dictators” like Daniel Ortega and Vladimir Putin.

Eventually?

As I wrote two weeks ago in “Trump is America’s Pineapple Face“, he’s already there—and RSF is catching up.

Trump literally said at Davos on January 21:

Usually they say, ‘He’s a horrible dictator-type person,’ I’m a dictator. But sometimes you need a dictator!

This came two days before his rant against Canada and the Pentagon priority shifting to focus on Canada. He’s not being accused of something, he has announced it.

Historian protip: late-stage syphilis is associated with erratic behavior of dictators like Hitler, Mussolini and Latin American “strongmen”.