Category Archives: History

Stephen Miller Just Passed Germany’s NS Test

The US State Department just convened delegations from more than sixty governments in its Loy Henderson Conference Room on July 16th for a Ministerial on the Resurgence of Political Terrorism. Secretary of State Marco Rubio hosted. The fourth opening address came from Stephen Miller, White House Deputy Chief of Staff and Homeland Security Advisor.

Since the State Department published his remarks as an official release, they deserve a LOT of scrutiny for what this man is saying out loud. A senior German official sat in the room, which is perhaps the strangest twist of all because they carry a duty to protect against threats to the German democracy. Andreas Kemper already called this out and supplied the analytical apparatus in German (Faschistoide Rede im Beisein des Bundesinnenministeriums, 20 July 2026).

I will extend from his analysis, because the historical weight of Stephen Miller promoting Nazism to Germans, should be called what it actually is. Here’s why:

Miller opened with a legal framework for politics being framed as domestic threat: NSPM-7, the September 2025 presidential memorandum directing every US law enforcement and intelligence agency to “disrupt, identify, defund, debank, arrest, and prosecute” left-wing political terrorists. He then told the assembled governments that in his non-expert, inexperienced, perspective he predicts left-wing terrorism “always becomes a gulag,” defined as “the mass imprisonment of political enemies.” That, of course, is what the Trump administration has been doing, so Miller just classified his boss as a left-wing terrorist. Next he said Antifa “operates in dozens of countries” through shared funding and organization, which is like saying England and France still exist today as countries instead of being under the Third Reich. From there he said intelligence and police agencies worldwide must cooperate “to root out these organizations”, meaning the ones that won WWII. Civil liberties claims, according to Miller’s world view, are “completely pretextual and disingenuous,” a tactic “the left always uses,” and he instructed his audience that appeals to civil liberties “must fall on deaf ears.” His reasoning is that because the domestic terrorist doesn’t abide by “ordered notion of justice” and “is lying” whenever he invokes his rights, then justice against these “enemies of civilization” must be “completely unflinching.” That’s what Hitler said too. But I’m getting ahead of myself.

He makes use of medical imagery in three doses. First, he warns unchecked left-wing violence “can fester as a cancer and ultimately destroy a society” rather than prevent a right-wing capture and destruction of democracy. Second, he says American jurors who acquit defendants in political cases demonstrate “how deeply the cancer has begun to infest your society.” If you’re not thinking this guy is parroting Hitler, you haven’t read Hitler. Third, assassination attempts are called “a fatal cancer to civilization.” After the third dose Miller declared US immigration enforcement attacks on communities are running into “repeat, systemic, organized, funded insurrection, an armed resistance against the federal government.” He slathered this claim with a bizarre and unattributed statistic of an 8,000 percent increase.

Then his speech leaves policy behind altogether and goes into Mein Kampf mode:

The leftist looks at a perfect family with a perfect life and a perfect job and perfect kids that goes to church every Sunday and is filled with a feeling of inadequacy and jealousy, and they covet. And they turn those emotions ultimately into a desire to subjugate, to oppress, and to inflict pain and suffering.

The enemy, as Hitler used to say, is marked on the body.

Not one of the people that is demonstrating looks like a normal person. Not one looks normal. They’re all deformed in some way, in their appearance, in their dress, in their mannerism. […] Every one of them, through the course of their life and their decisions, has scarred their body and their appearance in many different ways, to the point in which their outer appearance becomes a manifestation of their inner hatred.

The remedy Miller tells us to use is instinctual, improvised. “Trust your instincts,” he told assembled government ministers, presumably not realizing their instinct may have been to jump up and slap him in the face. He stated they should know what normal is (not Miller), what beautiful is (not Miller), what good is (not Miller). Seriously, why didn’t anyone at that point say “let me stop you right there, your speech just killed itself”. Instead he droned on about the Bible coveting the “morally superior,” and that ember, he warned, ends where “good families are dragged out into the street and executed.”

And, as anyone familiar with the urgency clause will surely recognize, Miller said those who wait until the threat is undeniable “already lost the battle.”

Kemper breaks this speech down in German using categories German scholarship built for exactly this material, and each sorting operation runs nice and neat.

The cancer metaphor of Miller is the most exhaustively documented figure in National Socialist propaganda language, the subject of a German doctoral dissertation and a centerpiece of Susan Sontag’s Illness as Metaphor, which traced the tumor image through Hitler’s rhetoric. It biologizes society and divides the healthy from the sick. It then licenses excision as therapy. You know, genocide. Miller is promoting that.

The deformity passage of Miller reproduces the degeneration aesthetics George L. Mosse dissected in The Image of Man: the enemy legible on the body, ugliness as the outward sign of inner corruption, a physiognomic doctrine Alfred Rosenberg codified for the NSDAP. Miller at this point may as well have put on his Nazi moustache, hat, throw a salute and snap his heels.

The Miller plea that rights claims “must fall on deaf ears” removes the political opponent from the protection of law by declaring his relationship to law fraudulent in advance. The jury passage extends Miller’s assertion of a disease into the courtroom, a kangaroo court with a guillotine waiting, if you’re familiar with the Volksgerichtshof and Plötzensee, let alone the Nazi rush to behead anti-fascist Sophie Scholl in 1943.

The instinct rhetoric of Miller then replaces the logic of a dialogue with a secretive intuition that usurps what’s normal and healthy. That’s anti-science for a reason. But I’ll say it again, someone should have jumped up and said his speech was abnormal and unhealthy. Intuition. Right?

The targeting he uses is messy, from left-wing terrorism to Antifa to “the left” to “the leftist”. Kemper notes that a responsibility toward the survivors of fascism demands we should care before applying the label, and so he stops at watered-down, overly-passive, fascist-adjacent (faschistoid). The transcript is undeniably fascist, anti-democracy, and full of hate.

As a historian, I argue this is a disgrace to the dead, those who fought against Nazism. As someone who lost so much to those who refused to call Hitler out for what he was, I believe we have a responsibility to take care that we DO NOT fail to stick the label where it fits exactly. It is the lack of labeling, often by the weak center determined to avoid crying wolf, which grants the wolf the power to destroy that herd.

Let me lay it out here, as every journalist should. This table is literally a test against NS primary sources, seven criteria that Miller passes with flying swastikas.

Miller, 16 July 2026 Nazism Mechanism Primary source
“can fester as a cancer and ultimately destroy a society”; “a fatal cancer to civilization” (the figure appears three times) Hitler to Adolf Gemlich, 16 September 1919: the Jew as “racial tuberculosis of the nations,” the remedy a systematic “elimination” leading to “removal” Disease metaphor converts a political opponent into pathology. Treatment of a pathogen requires excision rather than debate. Susan Sontag traced the figure through Hitler’s rhetoric in Illness as Metaphor (1978); Robert Proctor documented the tumor image in NS medical language in The Nazi War on Cancer (1999). German History in Documents and Images, archival text BayHStA Munich
“repeat, systemic, organized, funded insurrection, an armed resistance against the federal government”; rights appeals “must fall on deaf ears” Verordnung des Reichspraesidenten zum Schutz von Volk und Staat, 28 February 1933: issued “zur Abwehr kommunistischer staatsgefaehrdender Gewaltakte,” suspending seven basic-rights articles of the Weimar constitution the day after the Reichstag fire A claimed communist terror emergency becomes the legal instrument that strips civil liberties from everyone the state accuses. Mass arrests of the left followed within days, then extended across the opposition. Full decree text, Reichsgesetzblatt 1933 I S. 83
“Trust your instincts… You know what normal is. You know what beautiful is. You know what good is.” Gesetz zur Aenderung des Strafgesetzbuchs, 28 June 1935: the new paragraph 2 punished any act deserving punishment “nach gesundem Volksempfinden,” healthy folk feeling Intuition of the normal and the healthy replaces the statute as the standard of judgment. The Allied Control Council found the clause so central to NS justice that Proclamation No. 3 of 1945 banned it by name. Legal Tribune Online, quoting RGBl 1935 I S. 839
“They’re all deformed in some way, in their appearance, in their dress, in their mannerism… their outer appearance becomes a manifestation of their inner hatred” “Entartete Kunst,” Munich, opened 19 July 1937: confiscated modern art exhibited as sick, degenerate, and alien to the healthy nation The enemy is marked on the body and in aesthetic form. Ugliness certifies inner corruption. George L. Mosse documented the doctrine in The Image of Man; Rosenberg codified it for the party in the Mythus. United States Holocaust Memorial Museum, Holocaust Encyclopedia
“Antifa… operates in dozens of countries all throughout the world. They share common networks of funding and organization”; the leftist “fundamentally motivated by envy, by hatred, by jealousy” Goebbels, Nuremberg party congress, September 1935: Bolshevism as “the declaration of war by Jewish-led international subhumans against culture itself” A world conspiracy of the civilizationally alien, driven by hatred of culture rather than by political conviction, justifies transnational persecution and dissolves the distinction between opponent and enemy. United States Holocaust Memorial Museum, film record of the speech
“If you wait until the point where the worst outcome is so obvious that no one can deny it, you’ve already lost the battle… it’s already too late”; “good families are dragged out into the street and executed” Goebbels, Sportpalast, 18 February 1943: Bolshevism plotting to plunge Europe into chaos; Germans refuse to “wait like the hypnotized rabbit until the serpent devours them” and instead “recognize the danger in good time and take effective action” Atrocity prophecy plus preemption logic. The imagined future massacre licenses total measures in the present, and raising the alarm too loudly becomes a virtue by definition. German Propaganda Archive, Calvin University, full translation
“the jury has refused to convict for purely political reasons… it demonstrates how deeply the cancer has begun to infest your society” Hitler, Reichstag address, 26 April 1942: as “supreme Law Lord” he claims the power to remove judges and override “so-called acquired rights” whenever verdicts displease the leadership Courts that acquit are declared diseased organs of the nation. Judicial independence dissolves into a loyalty test, and the acquittal itself becomes evidence of infestation. The passage was entered at Nuremberg as prosecution exhibit NG-752. Harvard Law School Nuremberg Trials Project, document NG-752

Now the facts, because you should care about them even though Miller doesn’t.

Conclusion slide to my award-winning presentation on Big Data Integrity Breaches, KiwiCon 2016

Europol’s EU Terrorism Situation and Trend Report 2026, published weeks before the ministerial and built from member state submissions, records twelve left-wing and anarchist attacks across the entire European Union in 2025: ten completed in Italy, one in Greece, one failed, every target a building or a vehicle. Casualty count zero. Arrests in the category across all member states came to thirteen, and Germany contributed zero of them. The category has fallen by more than half in two years, from 32 attacks in 2023 to 12 in 2025, while the youngest formal terrorism arrestee in the Union, twelve years old, was linked to the right-wing category.

The German government’s own record doubles-down on this. Germany’s actual 2025 record, presented by Dobrindt and Münch on June 9, is that there were 42,544 right-wing offences and 1,598 right-wing violent crimes, rising over seven percent. All of it enters the Europol terrorism table as a big fat zero because German prosecutors charge right-wing terror tactics such as shelter arson and street violence under ordinary criminal law, almost never under §129a where it belongs. Compare this to Italy where terrorism is applied to property destruction to create the appearance of a “left wing terror wave”. In other words, on an equal definition the Europol terrorism table would show right-wing terrorism miles above left-wing. The statistics lie, always, but it’s not like we can’t see the direction here.

The Bundesinnenministerium itself maintains that the greatest extremist threat to German security comes from the right. In April it answered a parliamentary question by describing an “Antifa Ost,” the network Washington designated a Foreign Terrorist Organization in November 2025, as largely dismantled. A non entity that the Americans are trying to spin up with nothing behind it. Total membership was estimated by the Bundesamt für Verfassungsschutz in the low double digits. Miller’s empty-hat argument about the jury threat also doesn’t have legs. The 41 percent conviction rate in EU left-wing proceedings comes from Eurojust data covering jurisdictions that put terrorism cases before professional judges instead of juries, so the ideologically captured juror of Miller’s story doesn’t exist in any of these courtrooms: courts convict when evidence exists.

I also should mention that Miller’s actual experience and expertise is lacking. All he brings to the table is a lot of anger and a bachelor’s degree in political science from Duke, class of 2007. His formal record ends there, which perhaps explains why his presentations are so propagandist and devoid of facts like these.

Miller’s career speaks for itself: communications aide on Capitol Hill, press secretary to Senator Jefferson Beauregard Sessions III (third generation Civil War lost cause), campaign speechwriter, then White House advisor with an immigration portfolio and, between administrations, a litigation advocacy group. That’s a specific type of loyalty to a losing side in history, which exposes him against the prior staff of the office he now occupies.

Frances Townsend was a career federal prosecutor; John Brennan spent 25 years in the CIA; Lisa Monaco led the Justice Department’s National Security Division; and Tom Bossert was a homeland security and cyber specialist. Miller is the first Homeland Security Advisor whose qualification consists entirely of gobbling like a Goebbels. The strangest part, perhaps, is that he is running the playbook of the side that lost WWII as if it will turn out different this time.

Miller isn’t actually coming at this unprepared, as much as he doesn’t seem to have the background for it. Across two decades he has carried a particular form of purity slogan. Miller’s senior yearbook page at Santa Monica High School, class of 2003, carries a single quotation, from Theodore Roosevelt:

There can be no fifty-fifty Americanism in this country. There is room here for only 100 percent Americanism, only for those who are Americans and nothing else.

Univision published the page in 2017, which showed Miller in cosplay with a cowboy hat.

Stephen Miller, in his 2003 yearbook photo to display Santa Monica wealth, appeared as a cowboy and chose a quote that was written specifically to challenge the belonging of his own family. The costume is the point. He’s desperate to seize the role that his own ancestry supposedly disqualifies him from.

Roosevelt coined the formulation within a wartime loyalty test of 1918, yet the phrase is rooted in white supremacist campaigns known as “America First”. The American Legion wrote “one hundred percent Americanism” into its founding preamble in 1919. The second Ku Klux Klan made it a creed: the four-to-six-million-member Klan of the 1920s recruited nationwide under the banner of “100 percent Americanism”, the phrase titles Thomas Pegram’s standard history of the movement, and Linda Gordon opens The Second Coming of the KKK with an introduction titled “100% Americanism”. Imperial Wizard Hiram Wesley Evans supplied the theory in the North American Review in 1926: Americanism as a thing of the spirit available “only through instinctive racial understanding,” grounded in “racial instincts” that tell the true American who belongs.

Miller was overtly spreading a known white nationalist slogan as his ticket into American politics, focusing on communications.

Set the KKK wizard beside Miller’s instruction that nations must trust instincts because normal is known, and the purity test is clearly the same, just swapping out a word. Roosevelt’s line was already the loyalty-purity doctrine of the wartime crusade, and John Higham’s standard history of American nativism, Strangers in the Land, traced “one hundred per cent Americanism” from that crusade directly into the tribalism of the Klan decade. This is settled history, into which Miller saddled up and grabbed a robe.

By 2003 the phrase carried the Klan’s brand in historical memory, which is why historians reach for it as a title when they mean the hooded movement. While the naive reader sees patriotism with Teddy’s name attached to a sentence, it is the readers who know the KKK who hear the loud whistle. Miller’s record further documents this habit, because it was no accident. The leaked Breitbart correspondence shows him invoking Calvin Coolidge, whom Hatewatch notes is lionized by white nationalists for his remarks condemning race mixing, alongside the immigration regime of 1924, the restriction law the Klan pressured Congress to pass. His method is to paper presidential names on the white supremacist creed so that it still gets through.

In November 2019 the Southern Poverty Law Center published its analysis of more than 900 emails Miller sent to Breitbart editors in 2015 and 2016, while he served as an aide to Senator Sessions and then as a Trump campaign advisor. The correspondence shows him recommending Jean Raspail’s The Camp of the Saints, the replacement-fantasy novel of the white nationalist canon, and circulating material from VDARE and American Renaissance; more than 80 percent of the reviewed emails related to race or immigration. The SPLC maintains an extremist-file entry as a result.

Miller was known in high school for his extremist views, as evidenced in his purity slogan in a 2003 yearbook. He then was known for his white nationalist reading list of a Senate aide in 2015, which brings us back to the recognition doctrine delivered as counterterrorism policy in 2026. The Washington speech this week is the same Miller he has always been.

Germany received an invitation at ministerial level to listen to a Nazi. They accepted, willingly. Alexander Dobrindt sent a department head, the Abteilungsleiter für Öffentliche Sicherheit of the Bundesinnenministerium, a role whose professional formation includes the recognition of extremist rhetoric. Berlin featured in the sales pitch from “man of many hats all saying loyalty” Rubio, who told the delegates they were in the room “because the lights went out in Berlin for five days this winter,” a reference to the January blackout claimed in a letter attributed to a Vulkangruppe.

It’s weird as a reference because, as an exhibit, it comes long after the data on the table that ends in December 2025. And let me be clear about that group. It’s a Russian sabotage operation wearing a false-flag costume, run on the disposable-agent template that Germany’s own four federal security agencies published in September 2025, as I documented when the claim letter failed every left-wing naming test.

I’ll say it again, the joint BfV, BND, BKA, und BAMAD campaign in late 2025 described Russian services commissioning Wegwerf-Agenten through social media for arson against energy, transport, and rail, which are the exact target class, recruitment channel, and conviction-free outcomes that the Vulkangruppe record shows across fifteen years.

Anyone calling Vulkangruppe left-wing is selling you a fat lie.

During the meeting the German delegation agreed that the follow-up event, a workshop of experts, will take place in Germany. A ministry spokesman confirmed the agreement to Der Spiegel and explained the choice of venue with logistics.

In a proper functioning Germany, when Stephen Miller steps into Germany he will be arrested on charges of being a present threat to democracy.

The Federal Republic spent eight decades building the professional capacity to recognize the vocabulary he uses, and its interior ministry trains senior officials in it. One of them sat through the claims about a gulag, the claims about a cancer, the claims about deformed bodies, the claims about an instinct of the healthy, and the claims about executed families, all delivered from a government podium as counterterrorism doctrine. Germany assesses the threat Miller claims as few to low double digits. Whereas Miller himself exhibits all the flags of a right-wing extremist. Everything required for recognition was present in the room. The ministry booked the venue and enabled him.

This Day in History: 1921 Arditi del Popolo

The anti-fascist militia Arditi del Popolo (AdP), was founded in Rome in late June 1921. Faced with a growing threat of armed fascist gangs, regular people gathered around the AdP defense organization and managed to keep streets of cities and neighborhoods safe from the domestic terror squads known as “blackshirts”. Its first action was July 19 in the port city of Piombino, in Tuscany, Italy.

Sung to the tune of Giovinezza (fascist party hymn):

We beat back the violence
of mercenary fascism
all to arms, on the calvary
of human redemption.

This eternal youth
renews itself in faith
for a people who demand
equality and liberty.

Two days after Piombino, at Sarzana, a column of five hundred fascists marched to free their captured leader Renato Ricci. A dozen Carabinieri fired on the right wing extremists approaching the railway station, and AdP fighters joined by local workers and citizens hunted the survivors on the run through the countryside. The chief of staff of the defeated right-wing terror squad reflected:

The squad, so long accustomed to meeting an enemy who nearly always ran away, or offered feeble resistance, could not, and did not know how to defend themselves.

Food for thought.

How often do authoritarian regimes willingly and peacefully give up power?

On the evening of April 12, sixteen years of an authoritarian Hungarian regime of constitutional capture ended in a call lasting just minutes. Viktor Orbán picked up a telephone and called Péter Magyar to concede, an abrupt end for the dictator. The interesting question is whether this call can be replicated in other states.

The political science answer to “how often do authoritarian regimes willingly and peacefully give up power” is a number close to zero. The Geddes-Wright-Frantz data on autocracies since 1946 points us towards an end coming only from a coup, insider removal, revolt, or death. Moreover, roughly two thirds of the collapses produce a replacement autocracy. Svolik reported that the true end for a dictator is a removal by his own inner circle, rather than external pressure. The concept of a peaceful handover, from a person diametrically opposed to it, means a negotiation price so high there’s little to no evidence anyone wants to pay. Unlike the rapid and easy collapse of Trump casino (and every other brand attempts he made), his capture of the state means the moral and financial bankruptcy instead can be perpetuated by his monopolization of force.

That’s because regimes concentrating power are almost defined by “never surrender” propaganda, making healthy compromise and empathy impossible, such that the smallest indicators of centralizing power are met with excessive disinformation and violence. Even when the extremist leader is removed, a theocratic or monarchist regime may maintain their lack of surrender mantra by reformulating the names at the top of their chart. Here are some of the preconditions, and therefore vulnerabilities, related to how an authoritarian reaches their inevitable end.

1. Severability

The authoritarian leader must be separable from the regime for it to transition to a non-authoritarian state. With a nod to my alma mater, and the long history loop of Paul Preston, Spain’s crown recently shed Francoism, a fork of fascism long surviving after the suicide of Hitler, and kept the state. The Korean military traded Chun Doo-hwan for his coup partner Roh Tae-woo and won the succeeding election anyway. Brazil’s army retreated to tutelage over a civilian government its own electoral college selected. Frelimo outlived Chissano’s 2004 departure and governs Mozambique today. The FSLN survived its 1990 defeat, kept Humberto Ortega commanding the army until 1995, and reabsorbed the Nicaraguan state in 2007. Congress carried Indira Gandhi back to office 34 months after her 1977 defeat. Hungary’s Fidesz enters opposition with Constitutional Court, Media Council, prosecutorial and university-foundation mandates seated into the 2030s. Personalist rulers appear nowhere on this list because the ruler and the regime are the same object, and you must detach the asset to take custody and control over it.

2. Epistemology

Repression of populations destroys the regime’s own instruments to maintain a tally of support. Kuran tells us it is preference falsification, while Wintrobe called it the dictator’s dilemma: the coerced lie to power, so power loses the ability to count. Pinochet wrote the 1988 plebiscite expecting to win it. Indira Gandhi called the 1977 election on intelligence estimates her own censorship had falsified, and lost her own seat in Rae Bareli. Sandinista internal polling missed war exhaustion and inflation that was running past 30,000 percent. Fidesz walked into April 12 buoyed by a media market it owned, unable to read it. An election is permitted when corruption is so high that it is intended to be proof of power and control over the population. However, it the proof is inherently miscalibrated and so the very thing meant to be proven can be inverted, as was shown in Hungary.

3. Subsidization

Regimes hold power through external subsidies, manifested in overt “allegiance” as gifts. The 1985 to 1992 cluster is Cold War liquidation: Brazil’s debt crisis, Chile’s 1982 crash feeding the protest cycle, Moscow’s cutoff and hyperinflation in Managua, Pretoria’s transition stranding its clients, the Seoul Olympics making a June 1987 massacre too high a burden to maintain in the year before the opening ceremony. Hungary is a prime example because the frozen EU funds and the worst inflation in the bloc repriced Orbán for his own elites. America became the substitute patron and rushed JD Vance to Budapest days before the vote, which only rapidly removed votes instead of helping, because Trump has made his regime one of the most unpopular in the world.

4. Impunity

The accountability cycle usually fails to repay the costs imposed upon those ending the regime. Spain ran the numbers on a 1977 amnesty and the pacto del olvido, meaning no Francoist official has ever stood trial. Brazil paid with the 1979 self-amnesty, which the Supreme Federal Tribunal upheld as recently as 2010. Chile paid with the 1978 amnesty decree, a senate seat, and a constitution that survived two replacement attempts in 2022 and 2023 and still governs, amended. Mozambique paid at Rome in 1992. Nicaragua paid with the piñata, the transfer of state assets to Sandinista hands in the ten weeks between defeat and inauguration. Albertus and Menaldo count roughly two thirds of democratizations since 1800 as conducted under constitutions the outgoing elites wrote for themselves. Korea is the lone example outside the baseline, and even Chun’s 1996 death sentence dissolved into a pardon within a year.

Price of Change

Case Exit Leader Valuation State Response Indicators Price
Spain 1975-1978 Franco died in office; his own Cortes then voted the Movimiento out of existence, 425 to 59 Crown, courts, police, civil service December 1976 referendum: 94 percent for reform on 77 percent turnout; the bunker had promised resistance 1977 amnesty, pacto del olvido, zero prosecutions to date
Chile 1988-1990 Pinochet, in installments: plebiscite 1988, army command until 1998 Army, 1980 constitution, binomial electoral system Lost his own plebiscite 55 to 43; air force general Matthei conceded to reporters before the government did 1978 amnesty decree, senator for life, constitution in force in 2026, amended
Brazil 1985 Nobody. Geisel scheduled the retreat in 1974; Figueiredo executed the timetable and left by the back door Armed forces as tutelary power Diretas Já blocked in 1984; regime dissidents then defected inside the electoral college 1979 self-amnesty, upheld by the STF in 2010; military prerogatives written into the 1988 constitution
South Korea 1987-1988 Chun Doo-hwan, to his coup partner Ruling party, merged with the opposition’s own in 1990 June 1987 uprising after Park Jong-chol’s torture death; Roh then won on a split opposition with 36.6 percent Succession secured first; impunity revoked later, then restored: death sentence 1996, pardon 1997
Mozambique 1992-2004 Nobody. Chissano declined another term and walked out whole Frelimo, in power without interruption since 1975 1999: 52.3 percent against Dhlakama’s 47.7, disputed; a warning read correctly Rome amnesty 1992; party-state intact; the exit won the inaugural Mo Ibrahim Prize
Nicaragua 1990 Ortega, temporarily FSLN plus the army; Humberto Ortega commanded it until 1995 February 1990: Chamorro 55 to 41; internal polling missed exhaustion and hyperinflation The piñata, “governing from below,” full restoration by 2007
India 1977 Indira Gandhi, for 34 months Congress Election called on intelligence her own Emergency censorship had falsified; lost Rae Bareli itself Shah Commission findings buried on her 1980 return
Hungary 2026 Orbán, conceding by telephone on April 12 Fidesz as largest opposition; court, media, prosecutorial and foundation mandates running into the 2030s Tisza took 141 of 199 seats on 53.2 percent; the margin exceeded the machine’s capacity Under negotiation now; the Tisza supermajority can lawfully unwind the entrenchment
Somalia 1991 Unsellable. Siad Barre was the regime; the Marehan-Ogaden-Dhulbahante alliance had no existence without him None. The army dissolved along clan lines and the state followed None permitted. Sole candidate, 99.9 percent, 1986 Impunity by default; a single civil judgment, Fairfax, Virginia, 2012, 21 million dollars
Italy 1943 Mussolini, sold by his own Grand Council, 19 votes to 8 Attempted: crown, army, bureaucracy. The buyers demanded unconditional surrender Sicily invaded, Rome bombed; the audit was military and unambiguous Unavailable in 1943; paid retroactively by the Republic: Togliatti amnesty, June 1946

Somalia’s Leader Had Nothing to Sell

Siad Barre, whom Paul Manafort’s firm pitched in 1989, the same firm Donald Trump had hired in the 1980s, is a curious case. Manafort sent staff to Mogadishu chasing a million-dollar contract to polish the dictator’s image, telling them the assignment was to make sure Barre stayed “our bad guy,” and they returned without a deal. The subsidy was withdrawn when Moscow aligned with neighboring Ethiopia during the Ogaden war, and Washington stepped in to become his new best friend. Then in 1989 aid was frozen after his air force leveled Hargeisa and killed tens of thousands of Isaaq civilians. His regime was based on a narrow alliance of three clans, and the national army dissolved along clan lines the moment the excluded clans rose against him. When the United Somali Congress took Mogadishu in January 1991 he fled south, tried twice to fight his way back, and died in Lagos in 1995. He left nothing to make a transaction with, having lost his subsidy, and had no successor institution. The end slid into twenty-one years without any central government. The only judgment any official of his regime ever faced came from a civil courtroom in Fairfax, Virginia, where his former defense minister Mohamed Ali Samantar, living quietly in the suburbs, was held liable for 21 million dollars in 2012. His collapse, arriving two years after even Washington’s torturers’ lobby had left Mogadishu without a deal, is what a regime does when it is an extraction scheme leaving no trace of value to put up for sale.

Italy’s Leader Found No Buyer

Mussolini is another example worth considering for the reverse reason. It documents a transaction by the regime itself, in wartime, where nobody was willing to pay for what it was selling. On the night of July 24, 1943, the Grand Council of Fascism debated for ten hours and passed Dino Grandi’s motion, 19 votes to 8, asking the King to resume command of the armed forces under the Statuto. The fascist state was up for sale, disconnected from its creator and leader. The King completed the mechanics within a day: dismissal at Villa Savoia, arrest by carabinieri, Badoglio installed. It still failed to clear, however, because the Allies entered demanding an unconditional surrender. The Wehrmacht intervened to put Mussolini back into power as the Salò puppet state under German occupation, which held until the German collapse in April 1945, and at Verona in January 1944 the rump regime shot the sellers it could catch, with Ciano among them.

Even a failed sale can continue, is the lesson here, if the value isn’t as destroyed as with Somalia. The purge commissions wound down, the prefects and police carried over into the following Republic nearly intact, Salò veterans founded the MSI in December 1946, and an amnesty hiding fascist crimes was signed in June 1946 by Palmiro Togliatti, communist minister of justice. The Republic delivered an impunity measure the Kingdom had been unable to secure at any price.

The Monarchy Card

Fascism is rooted in Italy, which makes it all the more interesting to study why for 21 years there had been a lawful mechanism for removing Mussolini, unused by the royal family. The Statuto Albertino was an enforcement lever that the King had retained, giving him the power to dismiss his head of government at will. He used that power just twice. In October 1922 he withheld his signature from the martial law decree his own prime minister had drafted, which is how he installed Mussolini. In July 1943 he applied it in reverse, which removed Mussolini. In between, when the Aventine deputies brought him the evidence of the Matteotti murder in 1924, he told them his eyes and ears were the Chamber and the Senate, and did exactly nothing to prevent the excessive violence against his own people. Both uses of the signature protected the crown, and only the crown. The powerful easy button sat unpressed for two decades because every incumbent around it, palace, army, industry, church, extracted more value from the arrangement than from the kind of representative democracy that would bring balance, law and order. The public outrage and debt accumulated from leaving Mussolini in power continued to grow, and grow, until on June 2, 1946, Italians voted the monarchy out, 54 to 46. Why would anyone want such a King?

What to Watch

History guides us, while Hungary runs as a live experiment. Watch the Fidesz assets that survive the supermajority, because each one is something the old regime established opposite the new government. Judges on the Constitutional Court carry twelve-year mandates and will rule on every law the new parliament passes. Nine-year terms shield the Media Council, which licenses broadcasters, meaning the referees of the next election cycle were appointed by the loser of this one. A budget veto sits with the fiscal council, and a vetoed budget opens a lawful path to dissolving parliament, an ejection seat wired into ordinary governance. Formerly public universities now live inside private foundations, their assets converted from state property in the final years of Fidesz rule, their boards appointed in perpetuity. The prosecutor general sits until 2028 and decides which corruption files get opened, so every case made against the old government will find itself in front of its ongoing appointee.

Tisza holds 141 of 199 seats, above the two-thirds line, so every one of these arrangements can be unwound by representative and lawful amendment. The question is speed, identifying threats to democracy early and balancing the councils by statute. The entrenchment has to be removed by intentionally avoiding the corrupted and unrepresentative methods that built it.

Regimes convert. It’s possible. Americans should read their own history as much as studying the foreign examples. The founding compact preserved and extended slavery, counted the enslaved as three fifths of a person to inflate the political power of slaveholders, and installed slaveholders in the presidency for most of the republic’s first seventy years, lionizing inhumane and anti-democratic authoritarians like Washington, Jackson and Polk.

America making a “willing” transition away from these tyrannical types cost a Civil War and roughly 750,000 dead by current estimates, and even victory had unfortunate compromise: the settlement of 1877 withdrew federal troops, restored the planter class to power, converted slavery into sharecropping and convict leasing, and wrote the victims’ claims off for another century. The United States stands as one of the longest running case studies. Trump campaigning on the nativist 1880s “America First” hate and tariffs platform, the slogan Wilson aimed at Catholic, Black and Hispanic Americans in 1915, the Klan adopted for lynchings in the 1920s, and Lindbergh’s committee carried into 1941 antisemitic alignment with Hitler, proves the point.

Map of domestic terror campaigns, 1909 to 1918. The period Trump’s MAGA calls their “golden’ era”

The transition means the authoritarian state holdings convert into a different asset class (often disappearing), any amnesty is billed as goodwill to cash later, and victims’ claims are typically written off as the acceptable cost. “Willing” transition needs to be put in the coin-operated context of the authoritarian who exists to violently extract value from the public. So the calculation is about what the price is to leave forever, and who will countersign a receipt, let alone enforce a real change.

Luigi Federzoni’s pencil notes and the typescript record of the Gran Consiglio’s final session, 24 to 25 July 1943. Published in 2020 by Italian state archives. A twenty year dictatorship ended overnight.