A new PRRI report on Christian nationalist ideology has some important insights into the Trump administration base.
First, the correlation numbers are unmistakable. Trump favorability and Christian nationalism are r=0.80 and Republican legislative representation is r=0.75. That’s structural alignment. The ideology and political machinery are functionally the same thing measured in two different ways.
Second, authoritarian consolidation is growing by exhausting opposition. There’s no actual growth of the Christian nationalists, as instead there’s a consolidation of power by a small elite (similar to Hitler in 1933 rapidly dropping in popularity while seizing power). Adherent/Sympathizer numbers held steady at ~32%, but the people actively pushing back dropped from 32% to 26% over two years.
Third, decline in “Rejecters” may correlate to the political violence of Trump’s loyalists. A shocking 30% of Adherents supported political violence under Biden, yet they holstered their guns after Trump won. Violence is expressed purely as an instrument to take power, not any other principle. It’s strategic loyalty to an authoritarian who will end democracy, deployed when out of power, unneeded when in power.
Fourth, and perhaps most important of all, Vermont and Oregon give away the whole thing. Despite mega attempts to grow congregations, they are among the least churched states in the country with low evangelical density. Trump support requires disinformation methods about economic grievances, anti-establishment anger, rural resentment of urban governance. Theological propaganda isn’t as effective yet the Trump authoritarian trigger still hits.
The fourth point makes the first point far more alarming. The strong correlation means Christian nationalism is THE dominant authoritarian channel nationally despite two strong secular outliers pulling the number down. Vermont and Oregon prove that Trump disinformation channeled as Christianity isn’t required, yet nobody is bothering. The theological framework works too well. It remains the primary delivery mechanism to coordinate dangerous authoritarian nationalist cells.
The outliers also expose what Christian nationalism actually does functionally: it provides moral permission structure. Vermont and Oregon Trump voters have to justify their support through economic or anti-establishment arguments that can be challenged empirically. In comparison the Christian nationalists don’t because they believe God called them to exercise dominion, end of discussion.
The Trump fascist movement needs the theology even when the politics could theoretically stand alone. The theology makes their authoritarianism unfalsifiable.
And that brings us to why CBS just censored Rep. James Talarico, a man of the faith in Texas, running for Senate. Actual Christians completely destroy the Trumpistan plans driven by these nationalist groups.