SpaceX is the Chain Smoking of Space, the Martian Man of Lung Cancer

In recent coverage of SpaceX’s string of failures, we’re seeing a pattern in space journalism that prioritizes harmful launch frequency over safety and environmental concerns. Much like tobacco companies always touted product launch figures while downplaying cancer risks, today’s space coverage celebrates catastrophic cadence while minimizing the increasingly awful consequences of an unsustainable approach to orbital privatization.

A recent glowy showy Ars Technica article exemplifies this problem, framing SpaceX’s horrible ongoing technical failures as mere “bumps” while emphasizing random market numbers as the only concern. Consider this excerpt:

For all of the problems described earlier, the company’s only operational payload loss was its own Starlink satellites in July 2024 due to a second stage issue. Before that, SpaceX had not lost a payload with the Falcon 9 in nearly a decade. So SpaceX has been delivering for its customers in a big way.

SpaceX has achieved a launch cadence with the Falcon 9 rocket that’s unmatched by any previous rocket—or even nation—in history. If the SPHEREx mission launches tonight, as anticipated, it would be the company’s 27th mission of this year. The rest of the world combined, including China and its growing space activity, will have a total of 19 orbital launch attempts.

This framing applies a 1930s industrial mindset to what is fundamentally a 21st-century environmental crisis in the making.

Yes, I said 1930s. Factory workers turned into slaves pushed beyond safety limits would surely improve market dominance, don’t you think? I mean workplace fatalities would just be a “bump”, a literal human being literally run over to keep launch rates up despite hidden costs, so therefore…

The journalist celebrates SpaceX for “flying circles around its competition” while only briefly acknowledging that means debris from their failures has crashed into Poland, created “fiery debris trails over the Bahamas,” and forced air traffic controllers to divert “dozens of commercial airline flights.”

More like flying in circles because it can’t fly straight. SpaceX is really smoking now! 9 out of 10 doctors say circles make you more popular with the ladies. And so forth.

Cigarettes as Space Marketing

SpaceX consistently failed to deliver on its most known, most high-profile promises. Mars missions originally slated for 2018 remain a failure every year for seven years now. This, despite public rocket programs successfully landing on Mars since 1976. For some reason certain 1930s-sounding space media continues to normalize horrible setbacks and long-term failures while celebrating instead a rapid “chain-smoking” instant gratitication approach to launches.

What’s clearly missing from coverage?

  1. Atmospheric Impact: Recent research indicates that high-frequency launches are damaging Earth’s atmosphere in ways we’re only beginning to understand.
  2. Accelerating Debris Crisis: Starlink satellites are reportedly deteriorating faster than planned, creating a vicious cycle of more launches and more potential debris.
  3. Resource Sustainability**: The current model of disposable satellites and rapid replacement represents a fundamentally unsustainable approach to space utilization.
  4. Safety Concerns: Debris falling on populated areas shouldn’t be treated as an acceptable cost of doing business.

Beyond Marlboro Man Propaganda

SpaceX, led by a suburban South African who likes to cosplay as an American cowboy, positioned itself as the Marlboro Man of space. Projecting an image of lawless frontier expansion however didn’t escape reality, which involves significant risks to our shared environmental resources. Their high-profile objectives (Mars, lunar landings) remain embarrassingly unfulfilled, while their day-to-day operations clearly cause cumulative, long-term damage.

Indeed, the Marlboro Man died a horrible painful slow death, the price apparently of promoting lung cancer.

Lawson isn’t the only former face of Marlboro to die from smoking-related diseases. Wayne McLaren, who appeared in Marlboro print ads, died of lung cancer in 1992, and David McLean, who appeared in print and television spots, died of lung cancer in 1995.

The danger in current space journalism is that it inadvertently normalizes this model, treating harmful launch frequency as the only real metric of success much like cigarette companies once celebrated market share without questioning the actual evidence of impacts. Cancer was known to be the smoking problem by the 1950s, and yet at least 16 million Americans died from it after that point.

Ronald Reagan was heavily involved in cigarette launches long after cancer harms were known, leading to millions of Americans killed before message integrity could be restored.

We need a new framework for evaluating progress in space that considers not just the quantity of launches but their safety record and list of harms. Otherwise, we risk applying ancient, self-defeating, industrial-era thinking to a problem that requires a much more sophisticated understanding of our relationship with orbital space and our atmosphere.

The Manhattan Project arguably killed more Americans due to radiation effects than the resulting bombs killed Japanese. That’s no way to run a war. And we know conclusively the Japanese didn’t even register the two bombs as impactful, relative to the previous months of conventional weapons. But that’s real history, as opposed to the 1930s-era industrial marketing and propaganda of faster, bigger, more!

When journalists celebrate SpaceX “launching 150 times a year and building two second stages a week” without adequately questioning the sanity of a chain smoking addiction model for lighting up another rocket, they become part of the problem – enablers of a potentially disastrous relationship with our orbital future that generations will mourn.

Looking back at tobacco coverage, historians and public health experts now criticize the “balanced” journalism that gave equal weight to industry product launch claims and health concerns for decades while real harm was done.

The “both sides” approach to tobacco reporting is now seen as a tragic mistake that delayed public understanding and regulatory action, potentially costing millions of lives.

When discussing potential large-scale environmental damage of SpaceX, the appearance of neutrality can itself become a form of bias; one that typically favors established commercial interests over longer-term far more valuable public goods.

Four More Tesla Cybertrucks Suddenly Burn Up

Tesla has a long history of their Swasticars suddenly igniting in storage lots, and junkyards, draining fire emergency response time and materials without compensation.

What a waste of government services.

Remember the December 31 case in Georgia? I suspect not many people do. Or remember 2023 how Tesla dealers couldn’t deal with their fires?

Florida had a big one just last year, as did Massachusetts. A giant $300K damage one in California was interesting, particularly because Tesla said they couldn’t figure out the causes. Korea reported one too. And now we have another dealer on fire, confirming Tesla really doesn’t know what it’s doing.

Now reports from Seattle say a set of four Cybertrucks just burned up, as one might expect, highlighting how incredibly fragile and unsafe the Swasticars still are.

Police allegedly say they aren’t sure yet what the evidence means…

Source: KomoNews

That’s a real drone view of the fire. Really. It’s like there’s some kind of sign…

Wait, police? Police are being pulled into dealer product safety failures as well as fire departments?

Why not a visit from the Mayor, while you’re at it?

Cleaning up thousands of Tesla safety failures might be the biggest taxpayer waste in history. I mean, authorities could have been investigating Tesla management for years already, due to the huge number of fires they caused. This case surely just adds fuel to the long-standing problem of Tesla vehicles in storage suddenly being destroyed by fire.

an integrous day

i got asked to send a new bio somewhere, so i quipped up something quick:

three decades spent wondering is it rain falling on a window... pain, am i crying in quiet contemplation of the gates of vulnerability, or rather watching patterns emerge like unix shells crawling on a silicon beach under stormy clouds. i navigate the bicycle of balance between privacy and transparency, confidentiality and integrity, where ethical questions linger like a coal fog over the polluted thames. whispers preferred to shouts, in subtle architecture of security unseen yet ever-present. in a digital twilight i search for fragments of wisdom to reassemble into frameworks that protect what remains sacred in our increasingly integrous-depleted world.

-- flyingpenguin
      __
    .' o)=--
   /.-.'
  //  |\
  ||  |'
_,:(_ /_

Seeking Alpha Says Pour Money Into Unsinkable TSLA Titanic

Update March 14: as soon as $260 was “upgraded to buy” by Seeking Alpha, the stock dropped to $222.


In more than four decades of watching Wall Street hi-jinks, I’ve seen more bogus “buy” recommendations than I’ve had hot egg breakfasts. That crazy Tesla buy piece making the rounds? It’s the worst form of carnival song and dance, like a guy in the desert wearing a tutu waving a stick chanting “I predict rain”.

Source: Twitter

Let me tell you something about markets that’s been true since trading floors had actual floors, not sock-puppets on Twitter spilling fraud as advice: a falling price isn’t a buy signal on its own, because it’s often a market finally reacting, as markets are supposed to do.

A true Alpha of the market won’t be the loudest, most aggressive, or most dominant, which all are misconceptions based on flawed studies of captive wolves. In the wild, the Alpha wolf (male or female) is simply a pack’s leadership figure, the adult who protects the children, makes prudent decisions for pack welfare, and demonstrates “quiet confidence” rather than brash aggression. Real Alphas don’t need to assert dominance; they lead by example and put their pack’s interests ahead of their own.

With this in mind, any recommendation telling you to buy because a stock dropped 26% and has an RSI of 26 has to be in context of dangers. Telling you to buy a house that is cheaper than last month also has to mention it was built by a racist South African to launder his blood money, using unqualified temporary staff, on the edge of an ocean cliff expected to wash away in the next 12 months. A house is about to drop into oblivion. Who thinks that price will go up?

I’ve watched too many “smart” self-described “Alphas” hazardously tell people to chase discounts all the way to zero. When I see a stock drop that much, I don’t think “fire sale” (literally, in the case of death-trap Tesla) – I think “why is this so bad and who gets hurt?”

Teslas notoriously “veer” uncontrollably and crash into a ball of fire. Their 1970s design defects (e.g. “Pinto doors”) trap occupants, burning everyone to death as witnesses and emergency responders can only watch in horror.

Here’s what’s missing from the hollow investor recommendation:

Show the analysis of Tesla’s actual vehicles. ACTUAL vehicle analysis by actual technologists. Real traders know a company is only as good as what it’s selling, and real technologists know Tesla hasn’t had a clue about how to make a product since 2012. If what Tesla’s pushing out the factory door gets worse by the quarter and putting lives at risk, for OVER A DECADE (the Woz ain’t no liar), that’s not a dip – that’s gravity working.

Reality isn’t a Heinlein novel, as much as Elon Musk fawns about how he’s bringing his child-hood book fantasies to life. Waterbeds never, ever are going to be the future.

Run, don’t walk, away from 1970s sci-fi gibberish tech.

Show me the analysis of cash flow. Show me the balance sheet strength. Show me debt obligations. That’s some real Alpha behavior. Yet, we don’t get a peep of these from “I’m an Alpha” pants.

Where’s the clear-eyed assessment of competitors winning the EV market, year over year, while Tesla’s fraud increasingly gets exposed? Musk has been obsessed with… his 20 BODYGUARDS hiding him from feedback, shuttling him between bigger and bigger hate speeches and obvious Hitler salutes. EV sales rocket up globally, while Tesla sales are thrashed and trashed in an extension of his overt Nazism. Newsflash: Swasticar sales fell 80% globally because they are terrible cars, which means someone inevitably buys into a Hitler fantasy (looking at you UK). Without Musk’s big Hitler salutes to excite his faithful few, I’d wager Swasticar sales would have gone all the way to zero.

2024 Sales of Tesla in California dropped so far they almost fell off the chart versus other brands seeing huge growth.

Seeking Alpha talks up “energy storage and robotics” without any substantive analysis. A wolf pack leader would carefully evaluate territory, assess actual capabilities, and make decisions based on what’s best for the entire pack. The history and origins of Alpha wolf behavior from wildlife research say it’s never about flashy displays of dominance/control, but about steady leadership, protection of groups, making wise decisions that ensure trust in long-term survival. Now look at how the author throws in a line about “energy storage and robotics” like he tosses his penny into a fountain to make a wish.

I’m upgrading the stock to a buy for the long term as the company doesn’t only fall under the “automaker” title but is now emerging as a robotics company where the possibilities are endless.

That’s not analysis – that’s precisely the opposite. Seeking Alpha should remember their name is supposed to convey a measurement of how much a portfolio outperforms a benchmark through superior analysis and insight. A true alpha-generating investment analysis would carefully show the actual issues of Tesla’s health, and honestly evaluate the stunning level of risks, and make recommendations based on these fundamentals rather than wishful thinking. There’s nothing “alpha” about blindly recommending a falling stock based on an RSI number and vague promises about robotics as “possibilities are endless”.

Back in rural Kansas we used to have a saying for this: Thin ice don’t get any thicker when ice skates go on a Blue Light Special.

The market isn’t wrong to correct hard on the decade of lies from Tesla – that “buy” recommendation is completely out of touch. A stock going down happens because it deserves to be down, if you believe in a market having any real integrity at all.

A death-trap doesn’t stop killing people when the share price falls. Smart money doesn’t buy a dumpster fire just because someone slapped a discount sticker on it. Smart money asks why the dumpster is on fire.

I’ve seen too many “sure things” turn into “never agains” to be fooled by someone masquerading as an Alpha while demonstrating none of the actual qualities like careful assessment, protection of their pack (investors), and wise stewardship of resources. Seeking Alpha “buy” on a sale trigger is how you end up with a garage full of dusty lawn darts and a portfolio full of regrets.

Remember: Tesla is a decade out on a fraud, they promised full self-driving would be solved by 2016 and the first two deaths would be the last, then 2017 deaths, then 2018 deaths, then 2019 deaths… the Tesla death toll kept climbing. Today we look at Autopilot engineering from Tesla as more deadly to Americans than domestic terrorism. FACT.

Bernie Madoff didn’t get rich in a day, and Elon Musk obviously has been irrational longer than anyone should have allowed. So sometimes, just sometimes, the market is being perfectly rational to react to a huge over-hyped over-guarded mistake, and the “buy” recommendations increasingly have to be blind to the giant writing on the Wall… Street.

Let me explain simply how just one of the awful frauds worked.

Nissan had a LEAF EV that was a major player in the market by 2019, a genuine engineering achievement. The 2018-19 LEAF delivered about 150-215 miles of range (depending on the model), entirely adequate for the target market’s actual needs.

Elon Musk fraudulently started marketing the Tesla as 300 mile range. And I don’t mean just lying about the range, I mean intentionally corrupting the dashboard to lie, totally fake numbers such that Tesla owners would be surprised by catastrophic power loss and sudden car failure. And he setup a call-center support scam to bury the evidence. He corrupted Nissan’s market share with targeted abject lies, and a market should harshly correct him for it.

Seeking Alpha says this:

I think competition creates innovation, which can’t be a bad thing in the long term for the entire market.

Bad thing in the long term? That line reads to me like a carnival barker cheerleading victims into an unsafe oversold tent to sell spectator tickets outside to a tragic death show when those inside can’t escape a fire. He’s exhibiting “live wrong” thinking. Lance Armstrong was a bad thing in the long run, precisely because he treated competition as the one and only measure of innovation. Without regulations we should expect a market to collapse like a burning circus tent under the weight of unregulated criminals, loss of all gains, which is the opposite of good.

Seeking Alpha goes on to say this:

So really, for every hater, there’s a fan, and eventually, I think the Elon hate would blow over. Even if it doesn’t, I’m not projecting for the effect that could have on sales to be grave, and Dan Ives shares the sentiment…

For every Hitler hater, there’s a fan! How bad could Germany’s future be just because they marched into Russia without winter gear? The faithful still believed! This is the same magical thinking that leads investors to ignore fatal flaws while chasing false promises.

Elon Musk has been a frequent promoter of an AfD (Nazi) Party in Germany, which generates widespread disgust and protests such as this graffiti outside the Tesla factory.

The fact that Tesla’s stock ever had any power at all has been like watching the fraudulent dashboard numbers on the Tesla itself – both intentionally engineered to show inflated figures that don’t match any reality when measured against objective standards. Anyone with basic engineering skills could expose technology fraud in 2016; anyone with math skills in 2018 could spot market fraud.

Men on Mars by 2018!? Colonies on Mars by 2022!? Tell me how to BUY! I’ll take two colonies for $10 billion please. Oh, and now Elon Musk says I probably will die on the way and that’s just a minor setback? Well, then make it ten colonies for my dozen children born out of wedlock who I’ll strap into those deadly rockets instead of me! I’m upgrading to “the possibilities are endless” because… fantasy!

How many people are qualified to hook up a multimeter to a Tesla, let alone put a spreadsheet together for the stock market, or any of the other fraud brands that this conman has been able to fund with other peoples’ investments? The numbers never lied. And yet “Alpha” investors keep falling for the fraud.

Tesla surely will be known someday, hopefully sooner rather than later, as the biggest integrity breach in history among the constellation of other massive integrity breaches (SpaceX, Boring, Hyperloop, SolarCity, Twitter).

These insights are from someone who’s taken a Tesla apart, hacked the guts out of it to prove it fraud over ten years ago, and somehow has not lost his shirt by revealing truths. I’ve called Tesla a man-slaughtering Titanic of math and I stand by my hands-on technical assessment of the many catastrophic engineering flaws. I care about my pack and I take care of them. You?

Great Disasters of Machine Learning: Predicting Titanic Events in Our Oceans of Math