Ethanol versus food

Here is another misleading report, this time from Fortune:

We are facing an epic competition between the 800 million motorists who want to protect their mobility and the two billion poorest people in the world who simply want to survive. In effect, supermarkets and service stations are now competing for the same resources.

Sensationalist point, really, since it completely overlooks the simple fact that biofuel production can come from recycling waste instead or or in addition to grain stocks. Even more relevant to the bold claims by Fortune is that production has and can still significantly outpace consumption needs. The problem is not quantity of grain stocks as much as economic and policy decisions that have resulted in waste and graft rather than generosity. I have studied the impact of trade on international stability and security for many years and will never forget the US position twenty years ago. Here is some analysis from 1985 that perfectly describes the unusual economics and politics of US agriculture and foreign aid:

This is a strange and painful year to talk about grain. Our televisions bring us pictures of starving African children, but world grain stocks exceed 190 million tons; a record surplus.

[…]

Worldwide production of wheat and feed grains has grown 20 percent since 1974, 100 percent since 1964. Between 1960 and 1980, food production grew slightly faster than population, yielding a net increase in food supplies per person …

Although this production boom slowed down significantly after 2000, and by 2002 people were warning that climate change (i.e. global warming) could spoil the parade, it is not hard to find agriculture references that still show surplus that could be made into fuel in addition to food:

Compared to the wheat and corn markets, the soybean market has been relatively tame for the last several months. Record large world stocks, increased soybean acreage in the U.S., and prospects for at least a trend yield in the U.S. suggest that surpluses will continue for another year. Soybean oil prices have been supported by speculative demand in light of prospects for increased bio-fuel demand, even though domestic soybean oil stocks have grown to the highest level in four years. Soybean meal prices remain at a low level, reflecting the large supply situation.

[…]

Stocks of U.S. soybeans on June 1, 2006 were estimated at 990.1 million bushels, 290.8 million more than on the same date last year and the largest ever June 1 inventory.

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