Chinese authorities have been leaking photos to the press for at least a month about their Stealth Fighter program, called Chengdu “Black Belt” J20 or Black Eagle. The latest news is that they are ready now to officially announce its completion. They even say that it can fly.
Hu Jintao today confirmed that China had carried out its first test flight of a stealth fighter jet, the US defence secretary has said.
Robert Gates, who is in Beijing for talks intended to improve military ties between the countries, said the Chinese president had told him the jet’s trial had not been arranged to coincide with his visit.
The Stealth Fighter in Broad Daylight
The development of the plane has surprised the intelligence communities.
Reports suggest China’s progress in developing a rival to the US F-22 stealth fighter has been faster than expected, although it is thought it will take years before the plane is in service.
The Chinese call it their “fifth generation” plane, but they suspiciously skipped right past the “fourth generation”. The MiG 21 was a “second generation” (and sometimes a “third generation”), for reference. This new plane would have to include Chinese-made advanced radar and other sensors, avionics and powerful engines to be a real fifth generation like the American F-22 Raptor. Even the Russians only have achieved fourth generation in the SU T-50 (a fifth generation aircraft but not yet running fifth generation engines). When India purchased the Russian engines they enlisted help from the French but the Chinese are embargoed from getting the same assistance.
Has China been making great progress, or have they found a way to cheat time and overcome poor quality?
We have managed to get a set of spy photos, which used thermal imaging to reveal suspicious internals of the 75 ft by 45 ft J20.
Increasing the detail appears to show an elaborate mechanical system with only a thin shell. The plane apparently is propelled by pulleys and wheels in the forward section with a large human-powered tread in the aft section. You can make out about a half-dozen people hiding in the fuselage.
Insider information suggests it may still take time for the Chinese to squeeze a MiG-25 inside this shell in order to have photographs of flight time to leak.
Ok, but seriously, maybe this actually is just a public statement that Russians have started collaborating more on the SU T-50 (announced about this time last year); they are working together with China to get past the fourth generation hump.
Bluff
Why would any country announce a stealth fighter and provide pictures?
The stealth is not for ownership but in operation. They want people to know they have the capability.
China is surely populated by legions of idiots who can’t read and write, who don’t know Physics and Chemistry. Only idiots could invent Silk while others wore that solid dead-bear-skin. And only idiots would need a compass when Vikings simply used the sun. What you say ? No sun. Dammit.
Before you don’t know something substantial about a potential adversary’s systems, it is best to refrain from ridiculing said systems. There are Chinese engineers who can write RF modelling code and use RF modelling code. Also, there are Chinese engineers who can read certain uncontrolled publications where this Mil-RFy issues are discussed.
There is not much known about the J-20 and it might turn out that there is an innovative concept behind it. It might turn out that they made serious progress on engine durability. It might turn out that this aircraft is part of an elaborate tactical concept and part of a large program to achieve a certain capability. As a wild guess, long-range strike paired with an attack on reconnaissance assets of a potential adversary of China.
Never underestimate what opponents might achieve on tiny budgets. Tiny budgets mean someone with a sharp mind and a sharp pencil might have developed something clever and quite effective. Some people call this “asymmetric approach”.
Look up the T-34 and the Vympel AAM. World-leading Russian technology exposed only after the fact.