Sage analysis can be found in a new Task and Purpose article, which generally (no pun intended) has had some of the best reporting anywhere about the Ukraine War.
“While it is expected that Russian forces will regroup and restart their offensive, it is very important to remember that this is still the same Russian military with low morale, distrust in the ranks, weapons systems and logistics problems, and many other issues that have been widely discussed,” Holynska told Task & Purpose. “These problems cannot be solved quickly. Building the airplane in flight is likely not a task Russia is able to fulfill successfully in the coming weeks or months.”
That’s a modern take on an important footnote of WWII known as “75% of German Army relied on horses“.
One of the great misconceptions about World War II is the notion that the German Army was a marvel of mechanical efficiency…
Indeed. Russia has been likewise showing itself inefficient. Obviously unprepared and incompetent at military operations, is there any pivot for them other than General “butcher” Lee mode of rising death tolls while losing?
Russia has officially started communicating as they seek other “means” for rich white men to violently reject liberal values (e.g. deny freedom, justice and liberty to others).
“The war has changed, and we can only win this war by using means other than those we have been employing up to this point,” Morosov said.
As I’ve written many times here, the US has been overestimating any “learning” and “adaptive” capability of this dictatorship. It has tried to force everyone into being drone-like binary agents who have to be told what to think. That doesn’t leave many other “means” for success, although it does bring to mind covert sabotage operations such as how Germany operated in WWI.
This is why I’ve repeatedly predicted Russia may continue being exceptionally brutal and abusive in their desperate ploy to show power where in reality they are weak, like the Trump family victimizing the most vulnerable as quickly as possible.
…the conflict in Ukraine has become a war without pity. When the Ukrainians liberated the suburb of Bucha, the world was aghast to discover that Russian forces had killed scores of civilians.
This reminds me of when I’m asked about driverless cars and the trolley problem and I always reply that a truly intelligent car would never have gotten itself into the problem in the first place. If you’ve seen any of my AI presentations, you’ll know exactly what I’m talking about.
Don’t launch a plane unfit to fly, or a rocket that has to be blown up during launch.