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Aubade

by Philip Larkin

Posted in Poetry.


Alt Career Advice: Go Make Mistakes

When I was young I occaisonally received advice from friends and family, often academics with colorful and distinguished careers, to drop out of the normal paths offered to me and instead find myself before I took a job.

One particular sunny summer afternoon at Kansas State a tall lanky Anthropology professor named Harald, with wild gray hair who had a tendency to get over-excited while speaking, looked me over and asked "now that you've graduated what will you do with yourself"?

I forget how I answered. I am not sure I even had a chance to speak before his bright blue eyes grew wide, he sucked in a deep breath, wagged a finger and bellowed in a thick Dutch accent "you should go west to the ocean, jump on a ship as a deck-hand headed for New Zealand or Australia, and get a job working with sheep! Just be careful and make friends because if someone dislikes you they'll throw you overboard and…"

The first thing that flashed in my mind was the irony of being told to chase my own dreams and then being given a dream to chase. I since have learned this is a clever management trick: "Bob, you're in charge of this project. Now listen to me as I tell you how to run it."

What Harald really meant, it soon occurred to me, was that I should use the time of my youth to explore, to discover, to make controlled mistakes, to recover and learn from them (recover being the operative word — don't get thrown overboard). This seemed like age-old common advice and that is what I did. I would recommend the same to everyone.

This story came to mind when I read Moxie's latest blog post. Although I found myself nodding my head a few times, he also said a few things about risk and judgement that I tend to disagree with.

More to come later…

Posted in Security.


Top Reasons to Move to Windows 8

I am no big fan of Windows. In case it isn't clear from my site name, I really don't wish Windows upon anyone. However, every time I read an article about reasons not to upgrade to Windows 8 I wonder if that writer has considered the risk of delay.

The logic for a Windows 8 upgrade is simple:

  1. If you have run Windows 7 for a while and do not have any problems, then do not upgrade. Wait. There are many more years of support for your system. Unless you really love the new UI, what reason do you really have to upgrade? I don't see one. In fact, here's a small reson to not install. App store systems, modeled on mobiles and Apple profits, are #$%@#$ng annoying on a PC. Try to install Microsoft's own Skype in Windows 8, for example. You will be directed to register a new ID with Microsoft to download the app "easily". I hate that kind of marketing. It's so obviously false. The app store is making software installation artificially harder on a PC than just downloading from a trusted link. With a little digging you can still navigate to install a normal Windows 7-style "desktop" version of Skype in Windows 8 without creating a new ID and a new financial relationship; but that's a pain. So if you don't want to be mired with an app system designed for tiny touch-screen keyboard-less devices…wait. A better compromise/interface will probably emerge.
  2. If you run a brand new copy of Windows 7 and are troubleshooting problems or would like a very in-expensive support extension, then consider the $15 switch to Windows 8. It's a simple business decision. Your OS will be supported longer with patches and updates at a nominal cost.
  3. And then here's the bottom line if the previous two rules don't apply to you: if you are running anything older than Windows 7 then you should walk, no run, to buy a copy of Windows 8 (despite the fact that shortened it becomes "W8").

Given the above decision criteria, here are three reasons why W8 is great:

  1. Research time to upgrade has been significantly cut down and the upgrade is a risk assessment in disguise. W8 runs tests during the upgrade to inform you whether existing applications will work or not. This is not just so you can buy more software, it secretly is doing a patch/vulnerability assessment. A test I ran on an old system for a client uncovered a bunch of old programs in a template (Adobe Air, Acrobat) no one could account for. We gladly wiped those away and the upgrade paid for itself in this initial assessment phase alone. Anti-virus also was removed and replaced with the native Microsoft Defender. This kind of change must be factored into capital and labor estimates. You could save a bundle in support time by getting off old/unnecessary software.
  2. Although it is tempting to see every upgrade as a heftier, slower code base it actually could be the reverse. You will put new life into old hardware if you move from Vista, for example. XP and Vista are known to slow down over time (e.g. registry bloat) so an upgrade to Windows 8 in my experience has given a huge performance boost to old systems especially for multimedia applications. Note that the hardware requirements are not far from those for Vista so this is really about killing Vista/XP. That being said there's a hardware assessment utility also that will warn you if you do not have resources required to upgrade (e.g. 2GB RAM for 64bit).
  3. As Microsoft has publicly tried to defend itself, don't get hung up on the start menu. Users have used other OS without start menus so analysts should stop whining about it. Of course you can put the start menu back in W8 if you really can't live without it. I grant that a change from W7 can be disruptive, yet look around at the other OS. It took me all of five minutes to retrain users to use the pop-up bar and sliders because they own other OS that have no start menu (e.g. someone show me a start menu on Apple OSX and Ubuntu Unity). W8 brings users up to speed with the UI they own at home, or that their friends/family own. It's actually easier to cross-train when diff OS are more similar. Except for a hardcore, dedicated start menu junky who wants to prune and manage their menu lists (if such a person exists) more experienced/advanced users already are used to and expect no start menu.

Also note that the upgrade process has a key verification step that is super annoying. If you get an error during upgrade that you have the wrong media for your key, you don't have to download another copy of the media. Instead, just modify the ei.cfg file to point to your current media, as detailed by Microsoft, or use a SKU removal tool

Incidentally, I have to bring up again why I criticized Apple for their single-user marketing nonsense; security does not fare well when product management has a one-user-one-device mentality. Apple ads always portray a single adult user looking at an iPad screen. Kudos to Microsoft for pictures like this one that hint at a more typical multi-user environment.

This is a lot more fun than being in an iPad ad! Now stop brute-forcing my login.

And all that being said, if you aren't married to some application that requires the Microsoft OS or if you like the idea of getting off the Windows train, then really you should take a look at Linux.

Either way, please DO NOT stay on XP or Vista – Move to Windows 8 or Linux now. Don't delay the W8 (pun intended).

Posted in Security.


This Day in History: 1900 Carrie Nation Vandalizes Wichita Saloon

Carrie Nation was married to an alcoholic and faced economic hardship. These apparently were a primary cause of her desperate attempts to ban alcohol in Kansas, although she claimed a religious pretense.

PBS provides this quote about Nation, said to be her self-description

a bulldog running along at the feet of Jesus, barking at what he doesn't like

Her crusade, although based on her own struggles, also resonated with others who believed widespread use of alcohol during the Civil War (to boost morale, deaden pain or fight disease) was to blame for the "problem" of alcohol after conflict ended.

Reflecting upon those seeking temperance, and noting their arguments, [Confederate physician William Henry Taylor] wrote, "These may be formidable objections to the use of alcohol, but the military surgeon of my day would have thought that they were offset by the fact, demonstrated by innumerable instances, that it promptly rallies the deep sunk spirits of the wounded soldier, and snatches him from the jaws of imminent death."

In reality, despite General/President Grant setting an example as a well-known binge drinker, veterans were not necessarily more likely to drink and there were several economic and cultural factors that were behind the rise of alcohol consumption.

Heavy taxation ended after the war, which made alcohol more affordable. A huge boom of immigrants from Ireland and Germany brought a strong drinking culture with them in the mid-1800s. These two elements combined were a significant influence on the direction of American social customs by 1900. A large consumer base emerged and saloons opened and inexpensive beer was brewed to support them.

In this context Nation soon became famous for violent outburts and her irreverance for damaging property. Few men dared challenge her strong-arm antics, which eventually helped ignite the prohibition movement.

The following newspaper clipping, found in the Kansas State Historical Society in Topeka, KS shows the headline "Carrie Nation Wages War"; from The Wichita Daily Eagle (1890-1906), December 28, 1900, Page 6, Image 6

Mrs. Carrie Nation of Medicine Lodge walked into the Carey annex and commenced the demolishing of the fixtures in that place. She was armed with two short pieces of iron. She also had some rocks.

In short, prohibition was an attempt by social conservatives to block changes in American culture, despite obvious underlying economic and cultural foundations. Today it is easy to see why prohibitionists not only failed to stop the trend towards consumption but actually refined American ingenuity to circumvent regulations.

Posted in Food, History, Security.


What Kurzweil Brings to Google

A few years ago I mentioned one of my favorite movies and its vision of the future. Until the End of the World (Bis ans Ende der Welt) by Wim Wenders was released in 1991 with only limited distribution in America. I was fortunate to be introduced to the film by a Kiwi I met in Dublin in 1994 after I finished my degree and contemplated how to get hired into a tech company in the Commonwealth (e.g. DEC in Ireland, Unisys in New Zealand…).

The film's opening scenes involve a car giving real-time traffic information and direction. The movie basically had GPS navigation, Internet search engines, voice interfaces, laptops, mobile tracking, video phones and so many other predictions that today seem like uncanny predictions. All that in 1991!

What it did not have, however, was a self-driving car often found in science-fiction (Blade Runner, Total Recall, The Jetsons).

What does this have to do with today? I read in the news that Kurzweil, a famous futurist, is joining Google. And I also have read many times that people are unsure why he would join Google, even though it seems to me he spells it out clearly on his website:

"I've been interested in technology, and machine learning in particular, for a long time: when I was 14, I designed software that wrote original music, and later went on to invent the first print-to-speech reading machine for the blind, among other inventions. I've always worked to create practical systems that will make a difference in people’s lives, which is what excites me as an inventor.

"In 1999, I said that in about a decade we would see technologies such as self-driving cars and mobile phones that could answer your questions, and people criticized these predictions as unrealistic. Fast forward a decade — Google has demonstrated self-driving cars, and people are indeed asking questions of their Android phones.

I don't know why someone would criticize those 10yr predictions in 1999. If he had said early 1990s or earlier…but by 1999 plenty of evidence was around that voice interfaces were working and automation vehicles were within reach.

Here's my take on what Kurzweil was talking about: When I arrived at LSE in 1993 I volunteered to partner with disabled students. Technology and computers were skills I listed on the form at the office. My assignment came quickly. I was to help a blind Philosophy PhD student named Subbu with a new OCR system. The OCR system may even have been one of Kurzweil's; I don't remember. Once a week I would meet in Subbu's cold and drafty office, heated by the lamp of his Xerox scanner, to gather text files on a floppy.

The system, I was told, cost the school more than $50K yet it often made systematic errors. 5 would be read as S, an i could sometimes be a t, and so forth. Subbu needed someone to fix the text integrity so his computer could read it to him. He also needed me to add page breaks. While I understood the obvious problem of mistakes the concept of page breaks was eye-opening (pun not intended) for me.

Subbu and I started spending lunch and more time together debating differences between seeing and blind user interfaces. He emphasized to me how the concept of a page is alien to someone who has never been able to see one. He said he could feel a physical page and its edge but he said it was an odd concept. Why would an idea stop because there was no more room to write? To him the unbroken thought was essential to philosophy and the page break was an unfortunate interruption.

And so I not only wrote WordPerfect scripts to clean the text automatically (he tended to scan many books a week, pushing me to become more efficient) but I also added page break marks into his text files. While he studied the scans without page breaks he needed them in order to make references for people who lived in the seeing world — visual space defined by page numbers. Incidentally, I did the same for my own thesis. My Apple Duo 230 had native voice recognition software (System 7 on the Macintosh came with free voice extensions) and so I would type and then have it read my writing back to me as I paced around the room with my eyes closed.

About three years later a similar thing happened. While working on voice recognition software for a Hospital I took some time to meet with a local Goodwill center in Iowa. It offered computer skills training to the disabled. Their equipment was amazing to me; from a laser pointer headband (screen keyboard for people with no limbs) to the latest OCR and voice recognition for the blind, I could see things were quickly advancing.

Seeing new interfaces brought back memories of Subbu and his productivity. He could read and write quickly without having ever seen a screen or a keyboard. Being "disabled" really started to sound backwards to me. I was the one disabled by a QWERTY keyboard and being asked to sit in a box hunched over in an uncomfortable chair. While I contorted myself to use an awful interface, the blind would listen to text in any position and speak from any position. Their interaction with technology, rather than being disadvantaged, made more sense than mine!

When I finished graduate school I searched for jobs where I could expand my experience with voice inputs as well as UNIX/Apple, TCP/IP and the web. All the latter has come to pass, but even with tiny mobile devices the concepts of a keyboard and screen still haunt us.

And that is what Kurzweil brings to Google. Interface innovations. Just like a clean search page revolutionized the web, they're shooting for another big transformation in how we access information. Kurzweil is clearly a thought-leader in this space. I learned from him that we should not think of the blind as needing special instruments. It is the other way around. Kurzweil figured out how to remove a limitation that we were taking for granted. We should not have to see to use a computer. The keyboard was a strange standard and now we must move on to better, less-restrictive, options.

Think about the most annoying thing about driving. Seems to me it's the time wasted manipulating a steering wheel and pedals just to go from point A to B. Nevermind the "thrill," I'm talking about being forced to drive when you could be doing something else with that time, especially in places like Los Angeles. Google is moving to provide the benefits of an affordable dedicated driver (e.g. limo, bus, train) without the drawbacks that they usually come with (e.g. shared destinations).

One last thought. Recently I watched a Google employee present their vision of the future with big data. Their interface seemed overly trusted to the point of naive vulnerability. It made me think that the Apple map debacle was not having the impact it should; it was not only a warning for big data product usability but also for risk in big data trust.

My work with OCR integrity issues may seem dated now but the principle of testing systems for failure remains sound. What are the 5 and S of new automation systems and who is on the hook to validate that data before millions or more users with natural interfaces depend on the outcomes? Kurzweil will have some interesting ideas for sure and hopefully his experience will change the course of Google. I certainly hope not to see any more ads like the following.

This Google "One Day" video is a sickly saccarin, or even utopian, view of the future that is impossible for me to get behind. It's devoid of obvious and necessary realities of trust and safety. Wim Wenders presented us a much more human story laced with risk, which could be why today it seems so close to what has really happened. Some of his predictions were over-the-top, such as a nuclear explosion in space. If only he had mentioned self-driving cars…

Posted in History, Security.


National Eggnog Day

Today is a celebration in America of copying a recipe from Britain, making a more inexpensive version of it, then proclaiming it as our own.

As with most things considered distinctly American, eggnog is a tweaked and tinkered version of an import. The story, as I heard it many years ago, is that a traditional drink of the Tudor dynasty called syllabub was carried on by America as it died in England.

Only the well-to-do of old England could own cows and afford to drink milk fresh hot from the source and laced with spiced alcohol.

THE principal sale of milk from the cow is in St. James’s Park. The once fashionable drink known as syllabubs—the milk being drawn warm from the cow’s udder, upon a portion of wine, sugar, spice, &c.—is now unknown.

In other words, hot milk pulled from the udder and mixed with flavoring was going out of fashion in England. At about the same time it was being emulated in its colonies (e.g. America). Syllabub became less "fashionable" by aristocrats but settlers of America didn't realize it as they emulated what they knew of aristocracy.

Dairy economics of the colonies were an important factor in this transition. The once privileged recipes of high status in England were easily transformed into inexpensive replicas (as was the case for Cheddar cheese).

There was a small catch to the American knock-off of syllabub. Import costs for fine wines and liquors forced change in the ingredients. Alcohol that was found on most ships sailing in America — rum of the Carribean — was an obvious substitute to start. The more likely substitution later was based on variations of whiskey (rum trade and imports were scuttled during the Revolution).

Americans became so accustomed to the English idea of hot milk and spiced alcohol, despite the decline in England, that an attempt at the US Army academy to regulate it in 1826 led to dangerous riots.

A few of the cadets took Thayer's regulations as a challenge and intended to outsmart the superintendent and his staff by having the best holiday celebration West Point had seen. The term "celebration" may not apply in this case, but the incident of the "Eggnog Riot" was something West Point had never experienced. At least seventy cadets took part in the shenanigans, resulting in assaults on two officers and destruction of North Barracks, as some of the students, in their inebriated state, had smashed several windows.

Thus, today in America what we really celebrate is that a citizen doesn't have to be an aristocrat to have access to fresh milk and alcohol. Eggnog, cheddar cheese and many other products said to be American when really they are borrowed and interpreted from England without attribution.

Given this history, here's my simple recipe to celebrate America's National Eggnog Day:

  • Six Tbsp of Grassmilk
  • Six grass-fed eggs
  • Six cups of Wild Turkey 101 Rye
  • 1 tsp fresh grated nutmeg
  • 1 tsp black pepper
  • 1Tbsp Grass-fed butter (Note: Irish butter is often cited as grass-fed. It really is only about 300 days a year of grass feed. German butter can be grass fed year round. An excellent alternative butter is from Yak)

Mix the milk, eggs and spices. Heat a saucepan with the butter. Pour the whiskey and hand remaining five cups to your guests. Take a sip of the whiskey. Pour the dairy mixture into the pan and wait until it's cooked. Take another sip of the whiskey. Scramble the mixture in the pan, adding other ingredients as desired. Sip the whiskey. Serve scrambled eggs to your guests as you all enjoy your unspoilt American whiskey.

Now that's American.

On the other hand, if you still think you want to drink the stuff of origin ala the Tudors (or at least the Victorian version of it, before it disappeared), the BBC offers this recipe from Mrs. Beeton's 1861 "Book of Household Management"

  • 570ml/1 pint sherry or white wine
  • ½ grated nutmeg
  • sugar to taste
  • 900ml/1½pt milk
  1. Put the wine into a bowl, with the grated nutmeg and plenty of pounded sugar, and add it to the milk.
  2. Clouted cream may be held on the top, with pounded cinnamon or nutmeg and sugar; and a little brandy may be added to the wine before the milk is put in.
  3. In some countries, cider is substituted for the wine: when this is used, brandy must always be added. Warm milk may be poured on from a spouted jug or teapot; but it must be held very high.

…and just remember when she says jug or teapot that's a reference to an aristocrat's cow udder tended by his milk girl.

Don't get me started on the security issues in trusting an aristocrat's milk girl. Seriously, auditing milk girls was serious business in old England. Milk was often diluted with water, for example, if the customer wasn't watching carefully.

Instead of that hassle, just head out to a local dairy in America and ask if they will let you pull an udder for hot milk into a large bowl to celebrate Eggnog Day.

Bring this recipe and show it to the dairy:

Reynolds, Mrs. George W. M. (1871). The Household Book of Practical Receipts. 18th ed.. London: John Dicks. p. 12.

Cow Udders

Posted in Food, History, Security.


Top Diesel Myths and Why Diesel Hybrids Make Perfect Sense

Since 2004 I have been driving a diesel engine. The B5.5 generation VW Passat gets about 40 mpg despite being a full-sized vehicle with the towing strength equivalent of a Ford F150 pickup. It's really quite amazing to consider how efficient it runs. On a trip from San Francisco to Las Vegas, which is approximately 600 miles, I did not have to stop to refuel and saved almost an hour off the total time.

Even a small time spent looking at or driving a modern diesel vehicle tends to teach you several things about diesel myths:

  1. They're expensive: Despite being loaded with all the possible upgrades diesel cars can be less expensive off the line than a gasoline equivalent model. I paid $5K LESS in 2004 to get a diesel Passat instead of gasoline. When I told others they went to the dealer and confirmed the same thing. My parents bought a brand new 2005 VW Passat TDI after they saw the sticker price was lower than the sticker on gasoline. Diesel vehicles apparently can be priced very competitively. And then, after paying less, the value of my car actually increased.

    Some suggest diesel engines now must be more durable (due to compression load and high-pressure) and therefore more expensive to build than a gasoline engine. This is not, however, an argument against diesel. It could be another reason FOR buying diesel; a lot like saying a larger more powerful gasoline engine will be more expensive to build than a weaker small and inefficient one. Charging a premium for better performance/efficiency/durability obviously is no real barrier for auto sales, right Ford Tough?

  2. They're noisy: Disesel vehicles are quiet, really quiet. I've said this before but when the Audi and Peugeot hugely powerful (1,000 ft/lb torque) supercars the 24 hours of Le Mans the fans told me they were disappointed. They no longer could hear the roar of engines from cars in the lead. These engines are incredibly powerful yet understated. The vehicles that lost after stopping to be refueled more often, such as Ferraris, Porsches and Corvettes, were the engines that made the most noise.

    Consider also that my mother, a professor who studied sound, in 2005 said she did not like the idea of buying a diesel because of the reputation for noise. She was bracing for what she had been told would be the stereotypical "clatter". However, when she sat down in the actual car for a test drive she said with delight "It purrs like a cat!" Seven years later she bought a second diesel and she says it is practically silent. This is no coincidence. Diesel engines run at lower revolutions to achieve power and therefore are quieter.

  3. They're anemic: Torque is an amazing thing for driving. Horsepower is what most people are used to in America. The horsepower feels great when you want to get going because you can rev an engine through a long curve. Step on the pedal and you might not take off right away but you can accelerate through 4000 rpm. It turns out torque is really what matters most. Driving up a hill at 65 mph and want to avoid shifting down? You need torque. Driving a car full of family and groceries yet trying to pass another car and want to avoid shifting down? You need torque. Torque is not only great for pulling weight, it also is great for getting started at slow or low speeds such as driving in slippery conditions.

    Diesels have a lot of torque but they also tend to have a short curve of power. Starting from a stop they can kick but then feel hesitant/gutless compared to a gasoline engine. This is typically resolved by the addition of a turbo to push through the upper end of a curve. Some even have twin turbos and/or technology to eliminate the lag when engaging a turbo. If you have ever been pushing a diesel pedal when the turbo fails you will be faced with the undeniable realization that it is a completely different beast than gasoline; some extra technology is needed to give it the exhiliration of horsepower.

    Another way of looking at this is the average mileage of diesel is impacted by stop-and-go. 40 mpg is easy on the highway because there's almost no need to touch the pedal (due to power at the low end of the curve) but if you stop for a lot of red lights you have no choice but to waste fuel as you run into high RPMs. Another point on torque, My VW Passat wagon is a 4 cylinder engine. The power it produces at low RPM is comparable to a 6 cylinder gasoline engine. That's why diesel cars can be made with smaller, lighter engines yet have reasonable power.

  4. There's no room for improvement: The improvement over just a few years has been amazing. More efficient injectors, cleaner emissions, quieter, smoother…the list goes on and on. Innovation has allowed the latest VW diesels to achieve 90 mpg in track tests and 84 mpg in real-world use. Honda says its new Civic diesel engine runs 79 mpg with 221 ft-lb torque and is the lightest in its class. Subaru calls its 2005 boxer diesel engine a "True Engineering Revolution"

    When Subaru started its development project for the BOXER DIESEL, we soon realized that we were in an unprecedented, unchartered area in diesel engine development and were undertaking a technological challenge for which no benchmarking comparisons existed.

    You also could simply follow Catepillar's diesel innovation marketing from 2001 (clean bus fleets) to 2005 (low emission trucks) to 2012 (near zero emissions). Outside the consumer automobile, diesel is marketed with many amazing innovations. I've been eyeing the Volvo diesel hybrid (already sold-out for 2013) because it gets 126 or better mpg yet has the torque and all wheel drive of a truck combined with the performance of a Ferrari 308.

Perhaps you can see why I am so eager to stay with diesel when I move to a hybrid vehicle. Given that we're only just starting to see the potential innovation in both diesel and electric technology we could be on the verge of a vehicle revolution. Imagine combining the performance of a sports car, power of a utility truck and the efficiency of a daily driver into a single vehicle. That is what we see already in the first diesel electric hybrids.

Obviously an electric engine eliminates the stop/go mileage issue completely. Diesel only would be needed at speed and long distances, where it is getting more efficient every year. In other words:

Captain Obvious

It might sound obvious but I have to stop now and reflect on a strangely opposite view from a site called Green Car Reports. John Voelcker wrote an opinion piece called "Diesel Hybrids: Why They Don't Make As Much Sense As You Think". His arguments against using diesel hybrids are the following:

  1. "First and foremost is the issue of cost. On average, a diesel engine costs about 15 percent more to manufacture than a gasoline engine of equal output."
  2. "…a diesel hybrid should have boatloads of torque off the line, but may require extensive gearing to ensure highly efficient running at speed."
  3. "Gasoline engines convert 25 to 30 percent of a fuel's energy content into forward motion at the wheels; the rest is wasted as heat and noise. By contrast, a diesel converts 30 to 35 percent of the fuel's energy into forward motion–hence the higher fuel efficiency figures. But that leaves less "headroom" for improvement."

Ugh. No, really. Ugh. I want to put John in a diesel just for a day so he can feel how utterly wrong he is on point number two.

A horsepower curve continues well beyond the diesel curve as explained by The Institute of Motor Industry. The diesel has to shift or hit a turbo to get through the full acceleration path while a gasoline engine just revs higher and higher. What this really means is that he is flat wrong; diesel is a better match for hybrid because electric can carry the start to speed and then leave diesel to maintain speed with efficiency (as it does already). This is a PERFECT application of the electric engine that has NO CURVE. Let it take over starts/stops and you have a beautiful marriage of technology. John would instinctively know this if he drove a diesel.

Now back to point number one and the matter of cost.

I call bullshit. Cost is 15% more for an engine of equal output? Let's see the numbers on that unbelievable statement. Are we measuring patent application fees or what? Rather than get tied down in an inventory of parts and labor, however, let's get straight to the point. Nobody thinks the Ford Raptor is an inexpensive vehicle. A stock sports truck ready to chew up Baja desert at 60 mph starts at $45K; and probably not one single Raptor sold will ever actually be used for what it was designed. So cost can be higher and people gladly pay more for it because of percieved and realized value, period.

Ford Raptor
It doesn't cost less to build a Raptor

Even if I go along with the unbelievable point that the diesel engine costs 15% more for "equal output", in terms of value it kills a gasoline engine with a longer life and higher efficiency. Go tell a family of four that they will have to visit the pump half as often and they will be glad to pay a premium. Just the other day a couple with a newborn child pulled up and told me they switched from a Tahoe to a Jetta TDI when they realized they would go from refueling every week to once a month. What is the value of all that time gained to parents of a newborn? John's 15% cost worry simply evaporates in the face of some common sense. It seems to me the new diesel engines are in fact lighter, smaller and less-expensive to build and maintain over time than gasoline engines.

Now on to his third point.

He says there's no "headroom" for improvement. This is completely backwards logic.

If you give me the option of a diesel-hybrid high-performance full-sized sports-wagon that gets 120+ mpg (Volvo V60) or a gasoline-hybrid lightweight micro hatchback that gets 50 mpg (Prius) I'll tell you where there is no headroom. Gasoline has hit its development ceiling. And what was point of stating "equal output" right before stating diesel has "higher fuel efficiency figures"? Which is it?

Face it, John, even a Jaguar diesel luxury car driven across America was averaging 60+ mpg and ALL of us know that number would go up significantly if they made it hybrid. That is TRULY exciting — the opposite of no headroom, that Jaguar could potentially double its mpg. A luxury Jag at 120mpg! Squeezing two or three more mpg out of the miserable Prius is NOT exciting. Diesel engineering is revolutionary and opening up the future of innovation.

A British team has gone across America, from New York to Los Angeles, in a Jaguar XF 2.2 liter diesel with just four fuel stops. The team averaged a fuel-economy of 62.9 mpg imperial (4.49 liters/100 km) while crossing 11 states and three time-zones on a trip that took eight days to complete.

The ceiling for gasoline is already here and the improvements are flat and unimpressive. Why would you invest in gasoline hybrid development only to end up with lower mpg than a stock diesel engine? Nonsense. Anyone who has driven a Prius at 65 mph or tried to pull a boat with it knows it never will be as fun or useful to drive as a diesel-hybrid. A Volt could be a completely different car, perhaps even a luxury full-sized car, if it had a diesel instead of gasoline engine.

Last, but not least, John gives us this closing argument.

It's probably significant that Mercedes-Benz, which has sold diesels in the U.S. for many decades, has no plans to sell the world's sole diesel-electric hybrid powertrain here in the States.

Consider, in terms of significance, that the Prius was the sole option and it proved popular. The VW diesel was the sole option and it proved popular. Both cars have been "sole" innovative effciency/technology entries into the American market and both have hit sales numbers out of the ballpark.

Is Benz afraid whether Americans would pony up for a car that gets 66 mpg yet goes 150 mph and 0-60 in 7.5 seconds? Are you kidding me? Do people buy luxury cars because "first and foremost is the issue of cost"? They demand value. Diesel-hybrid is value.

Blue-Tec Hybrid
Unicorns may appear in America sooner

If Benz let me import 1,000 I could guarantee I will sell them immediately by putting up a small website with an order form. Simple as that; and simple to see why the Volvo V60, which John suspiciously does not mention, has sold out already for 2013. The Volvo is perhaps the most famous in the diesel community and its sales numbers prove diesel-hybrid is here and for real.

What John really should have said is that the rest of the world is buying high-efficiency and clean diesel Hondas, Acuras, Toyotas, Lexus-is, Subarus, Audis, Benzs…. The list goes on and on of "probably significant" options not offered to Americans.

When I drove in 2010 a manual diesel VW Golf in London it felt like I was getting 60+ mpg in a sports car. The inevitable question flashed in my mind: why can't I get this in America?

What is really significant is that Benz and other manufacturers have horrible marketing. Someone thinks Americans are unwilling or unable to recognize diesel as the perfect choice for their profile — high performance, high mileage on open roads with big vehicles hauling stuff. But all it takes is one test-drive and every American I know has fallen in love with new diesel.

A diesel hybrid would just make an already awesome option even greater, especially in the city and stop/go traffic. It makes perfect sense.

Posted in Energy, Security.


'Active Defense' will Improve Cyber Security

Lately I’ve seen many articles about “active defense” and “hack back.”  This is good because current defenses aren’t working and being in a constant state of defensive mode is not a lot of fun.  Something needs to be done.  The problem is many of these articles take a doomsday approach to the topic. 

Comments like, “it’s illegal, you can’t do it;” “you will disrupt someone’s life support in a hospital;” “we will end up with vigilantes hacking back;” and many more, do not facilitate a discussion but appear to seek to end the debate.  Many of the naysayers claim the only solution is law enforcement and more of it.  How many more police would be enough and is this a realistic response? 

Consider this: one person can command a million bot attack from the comfort of his living room; nation-states are training their people to use cyberspace to attack, steal, disrupt; and working for organized crime and terrorist groups pays much better than working a legitimate job in many countries.  So, what will it take to raise the stakes and make hacking a more risky business?

Active defense will actually improve security for those who consider it.  However, regardless of how the debate proceeds and no matter what the perceived outcome, companies are not likely to suddenly flip a switch and begin hacking back.  There are still too many variables and unknowns involved, e.g. risks, liability and legal issues.  There will continue to be much caution and debate, primarily since the law on this topic is so unsettled and at this point it is difficult to tell from one jurisdiction to the next how this activity will be perceived.

A company with any sense of corporate responsibility will attack this problem with a very cautious approach.  For instance, if your company is persistently attacked the first question is why and how.  Is the company being targeted for a particular reason or is your security so crappy that every hacker and his brother are using you as their playground? 

If your security is good, which is relative because no matter whom you are, your security can always be improved, you will likely take an escalated approach to the problem and not jump right in to hacking back.  During this escalated approach you should be collecting the necessary intelligence to evaluate the problem. 

To use an analogy, let’s say you are in a combat zone and encounter a sniper.  In most circumstances you will not call in an airstrike on the sniper.  There are many factors to consider, like where is he, what type of collateral damage may occur, what is the least amount of effort and resources necessary to take him out, etc.?  So, when facing a cyber-attack the same considerations apply:

  • Where is the hacker coming from;
  • What is his motive and end-state;
  • Based on the Intel you have collected, what tools and techniques can you use;
  • What collateral damage may occur; and,
  • Since time and resources are money, what is the least time and resource intensive course of action you can take to resolve this issue?

Companies have too much to lose to take this lightly and jump forward without a very careful analysis.  It is this analysis that will inevitably lead to much better security and more focus on the problem.

Other questions for a company to ask are, is the attack persistent or a one-time hit and how much Intel can be collected regarding the attack: can a motive be determined, what is the source and means of the attack, potential location and/or identity of the attacker, how many hops in-between your network and the attacker, what type of servers and who owns those servers; then, what is your end-state (block attack, find hacker, prevent further disruption, retrieve intellectual property/trade secrets, etc.), and finally, what are the risks, liability, and legal issues involved? 

Any company that would attempt to hack back without ensuring that their security is good or better than average is just asking for trouble.  A lot of avenues of approach beyond the standard defenses currently employed exist for companies persistently attacked.  The fear mongering spewed in many articles over active defense and hack back will simply drive companies, which are persistently attacked and frustrated with the state of security, to go underground with their response, act in a haphazard manner, and hope they don’t get caught.

Posted in Security.

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2012 CONSEGI Presentation: CyberFall

I presented "CyberFall: Active Defense 2012" (PDF, Article) at the Fifth Congress International Free Software and Electronic Government – Consegi 2012.

It is a matter of when, not if, your systems will be breached by attack. Many security experts argue against an active defense plan for fear of legal ramifications, harm to innocent bystanders or risk of failure. This presentation takes the audience through the heart of the debate; participants will learn key legal, ethical and business considerations to practice technical self-defense in cyberspace. The latest trends in threat innovation and actions are contrasted with conflict theory in order to offer the philosophical, political and economic framework of a successful active defense. As Carl von Clausewitz might say: "CyberFall is the continuation of political intercourse with the addition of other means".

When: 11:30am, Friday, December 7, 2012
Where: Belém do Para, Brazil – Hangar do Centro de Convenções e Feiras da Amazônia Avenida Dr. Freitas, S/N – Marco

Posted in Security.


Evolution VEVENT Errors with Google Read-Only Calendar

I've been submitting bugs far more often than usual since I moved to Ubuntu 12. Last week saw five or six in two days. At one point evolution gave me a segfault and on restart my Google sync'd calendar went to read-write only mode. I also couldn't delete the calendar. Every time I started evolution I was given the dreaded unable to read a vEvent error.

No backend factory for 'google' of 'VEVENT'

It probably was related to a crash. I was unable to find answers online for how to remove or repair the calendar so the fix for me was to manually edit the connection in gconf and then re-configure it in evolution.

WARNING: Since editing gconf is destructive be sure to have a backup of your evolution data before proceeding. You may lose everything if you do not back it up first.

To start, while not completely necessary, I reset evolution to its defaults to get a clean slate:

gconftool-2 --recursive-unset /apps/evolution

Next, run gconf-editor and navigate to "apps -> evolution -> calendar". If you click on the "calendar" folder icon you should see "sources" in the right window under the name column.

Double-click on it and you will see the "Edit Key" window for /apps/evolution/calendar/sources.

Scroll through the values, find the Google XML statement, and click remove.

Then close down evolution.

evolution --force-shutdown

Now you should be able to start evolution, re-configure the Google calendar settings and continue using it.

Posted in Security.